Heatherlie Handicap – 2023

Track: Good Weather: Fine

Following the early scratchings of Manzoice and Bold Mac, 16 runners remain for the 2023 Heatherlie Handicap and both emergencies will get to run. They are all geldings with one 4YO, three 5YOs, eight 6YOs, one 7YO and three 8YOs. Four runners had their last start in a BM100 Handicap over 1600m at Caulfield on 19th August, two in the Group 2 P.B. Lawrence Stakes over 1400m at Caulfield on 19th August, two on a BM100 Handicap over 1600m at Moonee Valley on 29th July and two in the Listed Andrew Ramsden over 2800m at Flemington on 13th May, while the rest all came through different races with 6 of them having their first run this preparation. Chris Waller, Ben, Will & JD Hayes and Ciaron Maher & David Eustace all have 2 runners.

The field includes the 3 horses that filled the trifecta last year and the betting is wide open. The early favourite is Jimmy The Bear who ran 3rd in this race last year and is a last-start winner. Second favourite is The Summit who is also a last-start winner and gets the inside barrier. Third favourite is Emissary who won this race last year and is first-up here. Uncle Bryn finished 8th in the PB Lawrence when resuming, while Flash Flood is racing very well. The rest of the runners are currently $12 or more.

Interestingly 7 of the last 8 winners have carried 54kg so weight is an important factor to consider when analysing this race

1. Hezashocka (14)

Group 2 winning galloper who resumes after a 16 week spell. Can run well first-up and does his best over further. In the mix.

2. Emissary (12)

Won this race last year. He is first -up from a 23 week spell and was first-up last year too when he won. The important difference is he won with 54kg but carries 59 kg this time. Looking at the history of this race shows that 7 of the last 8 winners have carried the minimum weight of 54kg. I think the weight will ruin his chances to win but would be happy for him to prove me wrong.  Not in my top 4.

3. Manzoice (7) – SCRATCHED

4. Regal Power (8)

Resumed for 12th in the PB Lawrence but always seems to need his first-up run and improves second-up. Suspect he’ll need this run before he shows his best. Prefer others.

5. Buster Bash (11)

WA galloper who won the Group 2 Perth Cup over 2400m in January. He’s had 2 runs this time in and has won 3 from 3 third-up. Won his only previous start at this distance and has lots of ability. Don’t dismiss him

6. Sheraz (5)

Finished 2nd in this race last year when first-up after 20 weeks. Resumes from a long 47 week spell this time and gets the same weight he carried last year. One of the 2 Waller runners. Prefer others.

7. Soulcombe (4)

Resumes from a 23 week spell. Hasn’t won at a shorter distance than 2350m and doesn’t warm up until he’s gone at least 1600m so I’ll wait for him over further.

8. Uncle Bryn (16)

Finished 6 lengths from the winner when resuming in the PB Lawrence and has drawn wide. A good miler but Caulfield is not his track.

9. Bold Mac (17) – SCRATCHED

10. Daqiansweet Junior (6)

Only beat one home when resuming at Caulfield on 19th August. Is on his way to longer races – he finished 6th in the Melbourne Cup last year – so will wait until he gets over more distance.

11. Sir Lucan (2)

First-up after 21 weeks and has trialled. Should go to the lead from the good barrier and wouldn’t surprise to see him in the finish.

12. Makram (18)

One of 2 runners for Ben, Will & JD Hayes. He’s drawn the outside barrier while their other runner has the inside barrier. Not the worst.

13. Frankie Pinot (15)

Finished a length 4th over 1600m at Caulfield last outing. The wide barrier is a concern but he’s a rough place chance.

14. Hasta La War (10)

Solid stayer who is first-up after a 16 week spell. He’s at big odds but can be competitive and is not out of it.

15. Jimmy The Bear (9)

Ran 3rd in this race last year and comes off a win over 1600m at Caulfield on 19th August. Carries 1kg more than last year and looks well-placed. One of the key chances.

16. The Summit (1)

Last start winner over 1600m at Moonee Valley on 29th July and has drawn the inside barrier. Hasn’t raced at Caulfield before but is nicely weighted and can make his presence felt.

17e. Junipal (3)

One of the 2 runners for Ciaron Maher & David Eustace, who both get in on the minimum weight of 54kg. Just missed at long odds last start at Moonee Valley on a soft track and is drawn well. Capable of getting in the money.

18e. Flash Flood (13)

Maher/Eustace runner who had 3 consecutive wins before 3rd over 2040m at Moonee Valley last start when he was outstayed. A key player.

The following are the top 4 selections for this years race.

Jo Jackson’s Tips	Lewis Oliver’s Tips
15 Jimmy The Bear	11 Sir Lucan
16 The Summit	15 Jimmy The Bear
18 Flash Flood	16 The Summit
5 Buster Bash	2 Emissary

Result	Horse	Margin
1st	7 Soulcombe
2nd	18e Flash Flood	0.75 length
3rd	15 Jimmy The Bear	1.5 lengths
4th	16 The Summit	1.8 lengths

The track was rated as Good 4.

Scratchings: 3. Manzoice, 9. Bold Mac, 12. Makram, 13. Frankie Pinot.