Track: Soft   Weather: Overcast

There are 16 runners for the $1,000,000 Australian Derby with seven colts, eight geldings and one filly. Five of them had their last start in the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas two weeks ago and seven had their last start in the Group 2 Tulloch Stakes last week. The early favourite is the filly Montefilia who came 3rd in the Rosehill Guineas with the best last 200m race sectional of the day at the distance. Second favourite is Sky Lab who finished 2nd in that race. Third favourite is  Rocket Spade who has not raced in Australia before but has five wins and two places from nine starts in New Zealand, including a win in the Group 1 NZ Derby over 2400m in March.

Lion’s Roar won the Randwick Guineas before running 4th in the Rosehill Guineas, while Khoekhoe was 6th in the Rosehill Guineas. Young Werther chased well for 0.5, 0.4 length 3rd in the Tulloch Stakes and Favreau kept chasing for 4th. Yaletown is the least experienced runner with only four starts but was able to win the Tulloch Stakes and is better than his price suggests. Explosive Jack has three wins from six starts and ran on strongly for 2nd in the Bendigo St Leger Trial over 2200m where he came from well back. All other runners are currently 30 to 1 or longer.

1. Lion’s Roar

He came from last to win the Randwick Guineas in a very impressive performance before only getting clear late when 1.8 lengths 4th in the Rosehill Guineas. He is worth another chance and should figure in the finish.

2. Rocket Spade

This Fastnet Rock colt has five wins in New Zealand including the Group 1 NZ Derby and two Group 2 wins. He is having his first Australian start ad is one of the key chances.

3. Sky Lab

One of two runners trained by Paul Perry at Newcastle this gelding chased hard for o.2 length 2nd behind Mo’unga in the Rosehill Guineas at his first run at Group level. That was an excellent lead-up and he is a leading hope.

4. Milford

Finished 2nd in the NZ Derby then ran 8th in the Rosehill Guineas at his first start in Australia. Not the worst.

5. The Frontman

Ran 3rd in the NZ Derby then was racing very keenly before being winded in the latter stages for 8th in  the Rosehill Guineas.

6. Yaletown

He led all the way to win the Tulloch Stakes last week at his fourth race start. That was a great performance which puts him right in this.

7. Young Werther

Gets the blinkers on for the first time and has placed at his last two starts in Group 2 company. Capable of running a good race.

8. Khoekhoe

Was a little disappointing in his first Sydney run when 6th in the Rosehill Guineas. Wouldn’t surprise to much if he ran a place.

9. Prompt Prodigy

Kept chasing for 0.5 length 2nd in the G2 Tulloch Stakes at his first try at Group level. Should go well over the 2400m.

10. Explosive Jack

He was a 3.75 length winner of the Tasmanian Derby over 2200m in February. At his latest start he came from well back in the field and ran on strongly for 0.75 length 2nd in the Bendigo St Leger Trial. He is a nice staying type and could figure in the finish.

11. Toscanini

In December he ran 2nd in the Group 3 Grand Prix Stakes at Eagle Farm, but his latest couple of starts have been fairly ordinary.

12. Favreau

He has drawn the widest barrier. Finished 1.1 lengths 4th in the Tulloch Stakes.

13. Rondino

Only beat one runner home in the Tulloch Stakes. This is too hard.

14. Zakspeed

He has had nine starts and his only win is a maiden at Newcastle. Not here.

15. Olympic Gaze

Has not raced at Group or Listed level and is aiming too high.

16. Montefilia

The only filly in the race, she has the highest prizemoney having won $1.2 million. In the Spring she won the Group 1 Flight Stakes and the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes. She resumed for 6th in the G1 Surround Stakes then ran 3rd in the Rosehill Guineas where she had the best last 200m race sectional of the day at the distance. She is one of the main hopes and will be in the finish.

The following are the top 4 selections for this years race.

Jo’s Tips
3 Sky Lab
16 Montefilia
2 Rocket Spade
1 Lion’s Roar

Group 1 Doncaster Mile 2021 (Randwick 1600m)

Group 1 T J Smith Stakes 2021 (Randwick 1200m)

Group 1 ATC Sires Produce 2021 (Randwick 1400m)

Group 2 WATC Derby 2021 (Ascot 2400)

Listed Galilee Series Final 2021 (Caulfield 2400)

Listed Dequetteville Stakes 2021 (Morphettville 1050m)

Listed Port Adelaide Guineas 2021 (Morphettville 1800m)