Turnbull Stakes – 2023

Track: Good Weather: Fine

A capacity field of sixteen plus two emergencies have accepted for the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes.  This has proven a very strong form race for the Melbourne Cup in recent years with many using this as one of their final lead in runs to the race that stops the nation.  The race is of particular interest this year with the Hong Kong Champion and current Cox Plate favourite Romantic Warrior having his first run in Australia.  He is hovering around the $2.20 mark in early betting and it will be interesting to see which way the market goes on Saturday.  Will the bookies take him on or will he be sensationally backed into an odds on chance?  Only time will tell.

1 Romantic Warrior (IRE)

Hong Kong Champion and current Cox Plate favourite.  He’s finished in the top three at Group 1 Level at his last five starts winning two of them.  Hasn’t raced since May and this is a tune up for the Valley but if he shows up he should just be winning this.

2 Gold Trip (FR)

Last years Melbourn Cup winner.  Was a good thing licked at the Valley first up against easier company.  Looks a real threat again heading towards the big features I’m just not sure where he gets too here from 18.  I think they drift right back and he may just have too much to do.

3 Smokin’ Romans (NZ)

Won this race last year.  Don’t think he will be winning it this year.

4 Francesco Guardi (IRE)

Has got back and worked to the line very solidly over unsuitable distances this time in.  Out to a trip now which better suits.  Might need one more but he is well drawn and Lane sticks!

5 West Wind Blows (IRE)

Super interesting runner from UK having first run in Aus.  Has got some super strong UK around starts like Paddington, Emily Up John and Dubai Honour!  Jamie Spencer comes over to take the ride which looks significant.  Chance.

6 Emissary (GB)

He ran a solid enough race in the Naturalism but this is harder and he might be looking for more ground now.

7 Osipenko (NZ)

He’s been building strongly.  Has hit the line really strongly at all three runs.  Looks ready to peak fourth up at 2000m and may end up with the right run.

8 Uncle Bryn (GB)

Was an impressive winner of the Naturalism last start at big odds.  Maps for a similar run here from barrier 1.

9 Berkeley Square

Was heavily supported last start in the Naturalism and didn’t fire.  Doesn’t appear to have come up this prep after the long lay off.

10 Bank Maur

He had the right run last start in the Underwood and was disappointing.  I doubt he can win.

11 Soulcombe (GB)

Was brilliant winning the Heatherlie two back and then measured right up in the Underwood with a good closing effort.  Maps to be in an awful spot here from the draw but if the gaps were to come his way he could win.  Dangerous.

12 Duke De Sessa (IRE)

Was a sneaky good run in the Memsie but not sure this is the set up or his race.

13 Spanish Mission (USA)

Safely held first up.  Need to see again.

14 El Bodegon (IRE)

Not here.

15 Right You Are

Love the horse.  Kept finding in the Underwood for fifth.  Think they roll forward here which could see him end up with a good run in transit.  Could he be the Smokin’ Romans of this years race?   Looks the best roughie to my eye.

16 Lunar Flare

On route to the Melbourne Cup.  Will be getting back and attempting to work home.

17e El Patroness

Has been some money for her early after she ran well first up in the Let’s Elope.  Personally I can’t find her off that form line.

18e Goldman (NZ)

Won the Roy Higgins here beating Soulcombe back in March.  Will roll forward again here and make his own luck but might be another looking for further?

The following are the top 4 selections for this years race.

Lewis Oliver’s Tips	Jo Jackson’s Tips
1 Romantic Warrior	1 Romantic Warrior
15 Right You Are	5 West Wind Blows
7 Osipenko	7 Osipenko
5 West Wind Blows	11 Soulcombe

Result	Horse	Margin
1st	2 Gold Trip
2nd	5 West Wind Blows	1.75 lengths
3rd	11 Soulcombe	2.15 lengths
4th	1 Romantic Warrior	3.9 lengths

The track was rated as Good 4.

Scratching: 17e. El Patroness, 18e. Goldman.