The Nivison – 2022

Track: Heavy   Weather: Heavy Showers

Twelve runners have accepted for the $200,000 Group 3 The Nivision and there has been one early scratching.

The top three in the market are Expat, Heresy, and Never Talk. Expat ($4.40) hasn’t shown the form that she showed last preparation so far in two runs but the key this time in is the blinkers coming off, which should let her do her thing out in front.

Heresy ($6.00) has had just the one run this preparation which was a decent 2.5 length fifth in weaker grade. Considering she was off for three months due to a bleed, she will no doubt improve again here second up.

Never Talk ($6.50) has also just had the one run this preparation which was a third in weaker grade, but it was a sectionally nice run behind a pair of Godolphin runners. She will give them a start here but will be rocketing home.

1. Promise of Success (8)

First up after 182 days. Tough to resume with the conditions that will be presented on Saturday but she has proven she can run well fresh and has won as high levels last preparation. I expect her to be hitting the line but place at best.

2. Expat (6)

She has been ordinary in her two races this preparation over further but has the chance to redeem herself here. She comes back to 1200m, gets the blinkers off for the first time in five starts, and is drawn/maps to get a nice run out in front. She could take catching.

3. Heresy (12)

She returned from some time off due to a bleed with a 2.5 length fifth in a weaker race than what she faces here. It was a nice return but I am happy to let her slide here and give her another run before I think of backing her.

4. Rocha Clock (4)

First up after 210 days. This is too tough of an assignment for her first-up considering she wants a dry track.

5. Written Beauty (3)

SCRATCHED.

6. Charleise (5)

First up after 70 days. Generally goes okay first-up and okay in the wet though she hasn’t won since June 2021. Can’t have.

7. Never Talk (10)

Returned nicely last start with a 1.5 length third in a weaker race. She is no stranger to these type of races and should perform admirably once again though it’s hard to back her with confidence with her racing pattern.

8. Sky Command (7)

Ran well in the Toy Show Quality before losing the whip in the run last start when finishing eighth. She comes back in grade and sticks to 1200m which is ideal and maps to get another nice run outside of the lead.

9. Larkspur Run (2)

She has placed three times this preparation with her latest in a weaker race behind her stablemate Brigantine. She has no issues with the class or conditions at handed and she has drawn okay depending on how the track plays. She always runs well without winning.

10. Jal Lei (1)

She has placed three of her last four in weaker company. Handled the heavy surface with ease last start but I am unsure if she is up to the grade. Gets her chance from the inside draw.

11. Duchy of Savoy (11)

Won two of her last three, with the latest in midweek company. This is tougher but she is on the upward spiral.

12. One Aye (9)

Can’t have her here.

The following are the top 4 selections for this year’s race.

Josh’s Tips	Jo’s Tips
10 Jal Lei	2 Expat
2 Expat	7 Never Talk
7 Never Talk	1 Promise Of Success
9 Larkspur Run	9 Larkspur Run

Result	Horse	Margin
1st	8 Sky Command
2nd	7 Never Talk	1.86 lengths
3rd	3 Heresy	1.95 lengths
4th	12 One Aye	5.84 lengths

The track was rated as Heavy 10.

Scratchings: 4. Rocha Clock, 5. Written Beauty.