Craven Plate – 2022

Track: Soft – Heavy   Weather: Sunny

Ten runners have accepted for the $750,000 Group 3 Craven Plate and there have been no early scratchings.

We are looking for a new winner of this race as the 2020 & 2021 winner in Think It Over isn’t here, and this race is generally won by some nice horses. History is not kind to mares or three-year-olds, which doesn’t pose too well for the lone three-year-old in the race in Promitto ($9.50).

Cascadian ($1.90) has opened up the early favourite following his amazing display in the Hill Stakes where he won by a dominant four lengths. Surf Dancer ($4.20) is on the second line of betting and he was also impressive but he was first-up when winning the Shannon Stakes, and the form should stand up well with Ellsberg winning a Group 1 since.

Promitto ($9.50) is on the third line of betting and as discussed, history hasn’t been kind to past three-year-olds. He hasn’t had good form in the lead-up to this.

1. Cascadian (5)

Impressive four-length winner of the Hill Stakes. Back to 1800m is ideal, drawn well and he will appreciate the pending sunshine that’s forecast.

2. Just Folk (3)

Placed in the Penny Edition Stakes first up in Adelaide before failing on the heavy going in Group 1 company. Last start he placed in the Seymour Cup behind Noname Lane over the mile, despite being wide throughout. Take on trust.

3. Surf Dancer (9)

Won the Shannon Stakes first up which was very impressive and Ellsberg has since won a Group 1. He has handled the 1800m in the past and this is a step back in grade, so I expect another solid run from him.

4. Warning (6)

He was very ordinary first up and will be wanting a lot further than this.

5. Zeyrek (8)

Two runs in this preparation he hasn’t finished any closer than tenth. Can’t take him on his recent efforts.

6. Laure Me In (10)

Placed last time out at Sandown behind Regal Lion. He will handle the 1800m and the track drying out suits him as well.

7. Esti Feny (2)

Ran okay first up in the Seymour Cup and he will appreciate the step up in distance with the drying track. Expect a bold showing.

8. Hezashocka (4)

Ran brilliantly first-up before not making an impact in the Turnbull Stakes.  He comes back to a more suitable grade and back to 1800m is highly suitable.

9. Pinarello (7)

He failed to make an impact first up in the Shannon Stakes. Out to 1800m suits him well and so will the drying track.

10. Promitto (1)

He hasn’t lived up to his two-year-old form and this looks a task too hard.

The following are the top 4 selections for this year’s race.

Josh’s Tips	Jo’s Tips
1 Cascadian	1 Cascadian
3 Surf Dancer	3 Surf Dancer
7 Esti Feny	2 Just Folk
2 Just Folk	10 Promitto

Result	Horse	Margin
1st	1 Cascadian
2nd	2 Just Folk	1.72 lengths
3rd	10 Promitto	3.25 lengths
4th	8 Hezashocka	4.79 lengths

The track was rated as Soft 7.

There were no scratchings.