Victoria Derby – 2020 tips, preview and runner by runner

Track: Good   Weather: Fine

There is a field of 14 colts and geldings, with no fillies this year, for the $2,000,000 Victoria Derby. Four of them are sired by Tavistock (Johnny Get Angry, Young Werther,  Wertheimer and Wisaka) and three are sired by Dundeel (Let’s Karaka Deel, Hit The Shot and Cetshwayo). Six of them had their last start in the Group 3 Caulfield Classic on 17 October, three in the Listed Geelong Classic on 21 October and two in the Group 2 Moonee Valley Vase on 24 October, while the other three came through the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes in Sydney, the Listed Super Impose Stakes and a maiden plate at Wodonga. All are stepping up to this distance for the first time

The early favourite is Young Werther who is also the least experienced runner in the field with only two runs under his belt but both were very good for a win and a close 2nd. Second favourite is Cherry Tortoni who has drawn the outside barrier but is a strong chance here and has already won four races from seven starts. Third favourite is Hit The Shot who was clearly looking for a longer distance when powering home for 3rd in the Caulfield Classic.

Albarado won the Caulfield Classic last start and has only been out of the trifecta once in his six starts.  Let’s Karaka Deel was 2nd in the Caulfield Classic and is bred for staying. Redwood Shadow finished 4th in that same race coming from a win in a Ballarat maiden over 1600m. Cetshwayo was 6th in the Caulfield Classic but won the Derby trial at Flemington the start before, while Tour Of Duty finished 5th in the Caulfield Classic and is still a maiden after five starts.  All other runners are currently 30 to 1 or longer.

1. Cherry Tortoni

This lovely chestnut gelding trained by Patrick Payne has four wins and two places from seven starts and won all his first three starts. He went to Sydney to contest the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes and didn’t go as well in that direction and after looking for a run and being hampered at the 300m he finished 6.3 lengths 7th. He returned to Melbourne where he settled well back but came on strongly to win by 0.2 lengths in the Group 2 Moonee Valley Vase over 2040m on 24 October. I expect him to be in the finish.

2. Albarado

Last start he won the Group 3 Caulfield Classic, beating several others in this field. He has race five times for two wins and three places and he is by Savabeel out of an O’Reilly mare so he is bred to be a stayer. One of the main chances.

3. Johnny Get Angry

He is one of four maiden runners in the race but he managed to run 3rd in the Moonee Valley Vase last start, although he was 7 lengths behind the first two home.

4. Let’s Karaka Deel

This Dundeel colt raced greenly when 2nd in the Caulfield Classic last start and looks as if he is still learning to race. He has raced four times for a win and two places and looks a strong place hope again.

5. Young Werther

This gelding has only raced twice but looks to have some class about him. He debuted with a solid 1.25 length win in a Geelong maiden plate over 1500m, then ran on strongly to just miss when 0.2 length 2nd in the Listed Super Impose Stakes over 1800m. He is one of the main chances.

6. Hit The Shot

Was held up racing tightly then drove hard late for 1.05 lengths 4th in the Derby Trial, then was outsprinted before charging home late for 0.2, 0.1 lengths 3rd in the Caulfield Classic. He looks as if he will handle the distance and should go well.

7. Cetshwayo

He won the Derby Trial on 23 September, then was a little disappointing when 2.9 lengths 6th in the Caulfield Classic.

8. Redwood Shadow

After winning a Ballarat maiden by 1.5 lengths he ran on strongly for 0.4 lengths 4th in the Caulfield Classic and is probably still on the improve. Has to be considered.

9. Wertheimer

He ran 2 lengths 6th in the Derby Trial then was 15 lengths 10th in the Spring Champion Stakes. Looking elsewhere.

10. Tour Of Duty

Fought on for 2nd in the Derby Trial then fought hard again for 0.9 Lengths 5th in the Caulfield Classic. Not the worst.

11. Token Spirit

He wasn’t far away in the Derby Trial and the Geelomg Classic at the last two starts and it wouldn’t be a big surprise to see him place.

12. Born To Succeed

He won a Wodonga maiden plate at his 6th start and comes straight here. it looks too big a class rise.

13. Wisaka

Still a maiden and is aiming too high.

14. Kenzan

Still a maiden and is aiming too high.

The following are the top 4 selections for this years race.

Jo’s Tips
1 Cherry Tortoni
5 Young Werther
2 Albarado
4 Let’s Karaka Deel

The Golden Eagle 2020 (Rosehill 1500m)

Group 1 Cantala Stakes 2020 (Flemington 1600m)

Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes 2020 (Flemington 1200m)

Group 1 Empire Rose Stakes 2020 (Flemington 1600m)

Group 3 Carbine Club Stakes 2020 (Flemington 1600m)

Group 3 Hotham Handicap 2020 (Flemington 2500m)