From the archives:
ATC Australian Oaks Preview & Tips 2020
Track: Slow Weather: Overcast
There is a field of 14 for the $500,000 The Star Australian Oaks. Seven had their last start in the Vinery Stud Stakes over 2000m a fortnight ago and seven had their last start in the Group 3 Adrian Knox over 2000m last week. The early favourite is Colette who was an impressive 2.8 length winner of the Adrian Knox, which was her 3rd consecutive win. Second favourite is Probabeel who was a close 2nd in the Vinery Stud Stakes when she got clear, and third favourite is Shout The Bar who won that race.
Nudge was 3rd in the Vinery and looked a winning chance 250m from home. Toffee Tongue is still a maiden but finished the race off strongly for 2nd in the Adrian Knox. Game Of Thorns ran 5th in the Vinery, while Quintessa is the other maiden in the race and ran 3rd in the Adrian Knox. All other runners are currently 30 to 1 or longer.
Australian Oaks Runner by Runner 2020
She won the G1 Surround Stakes three starts ago, and since then ran 2nd in the G2 Phar Lap Stakes then a close 2nd in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes where she had the best last 400m sectional of the day. She steps up to the 2400m for the first time but her breeding suggests that will not be a problem. One of the main chances.
2. Shout The Bar
Has won 3 of her 4 starts and was nailed on the line for a close 2nd at the other start. She led from the 800m and fought to hold on from the fast-finishing Probabeel winning the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes last start. The extra 400m is a query but she will be in the finish if she gets her way in front. Each way.
Third placegetter in the Vinery Stud Stakes last start she looked a big chance 250m from home but then her run ended. She has room for improvement but might find the 2400m too far.
This Hallowed Crown filly has had 5 starts for 3 wins and 2 places. She won a Newcastle Class 1 & Maiden race by over 6 lengths, a benchmark 64 at Kembla Grange by 2 lengths then won the G3 Adrian Knox Stakes by an impressive 2.8 lengths at her first metropolitan run. That was an impressive win as she was held up, hampered then ran on very strongly when clear. I love the big margins she has been winning by and she is my pick to win again.
5. Game Of Thorns
Her 2 wins have been over 1300m and 1400m , She ran a credicle 5th in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes last start , but I suspect she might find the 2400m too far.
This is a nice filly who has two good wins at Kyneton and Wangaratta but has not been able to place in the city. She tries hard but I expect her to find this too hard.
7. Toffee Tongue
One of two maiden runners in the field (the other is Quintessa) I don’t think her first win is too far away. She has ran 2nd at her last three starts and the most recent was behind Colette in the G1 Adrian Knox Stakes. She ran on strongly in that race and I think the 2400m will suit her as she is out of a Zabeel mare. She is capable of placing here and is currently a good each-way price.
8 . Dorothy Of Oz
She finished 1.5 lengths 6th in the G3 Kembla Grange Classic over 1600m, the led from the 1400m but compounded in the straight to finish 10.4 lengths 10th in the G3 Adrian Knox Stakes. Not for me.
Seven starts for no wins and 4 places does not look like the right resume to win the Australian Oaks. She did finish 3rd to Colette in the Adrian Knox Stakes at her latest outing, but she was 3.6 lengths back. Barrier 5 should suit her and if she improves on last run she could place.
10. Aspect Ratio
Her only win was a Warwick Farm maiden plate over 1600m, and at her four runs since she has finished in the second-half of the field. She will find this race too tough.
11. Strange Charm
After winning a maiden handicap at Kensington she has contested two Group level races for 11th in the G3 Kembla Grange Classic and 11th in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes. Looks to be outclassed here.
12. Stick Ém Up
She is bred to stay and contested the G1 Kennedy Oaks in the Spring over 2500m, where she finished 8th. She was out wide to finish 5th in the Adrian Knox Stakes and looks as if the extra distance will suit her. She is at long odds but could run a place here.
13. Satin Rain
Her 7th in the Adrian Knox has not bad as she had trouble getting a run and only got clear very late. She will find this too tough.
14. Cosmic Haze
Like the previous horse, she only got clear late in the Adrian Knox where she finished 8th. Her only win in 9 starts was a Gold Coast maiden plate over 1800m so she will find this too tough.
The following are the top 4 selections from our tipster panel for this years race.
|2 Shout The Bar
|7 Toffee Tongue