Naturalism Stakes – 2020

Track: Good    Weather: Late Rain

Three early scratchings means that emergencies The King, Kinane and Super Girl secure a run.  One more scratching is required for the progressive Shandy to gain a start.

As always this looks a really competitive race with the winner securing a start in this years Caulfield Cup.  Eight runners come through the Heatherlie Handicap.  Chris Waller leads the way with three runners and his horses have been flying in Melbourne in recent weeks.  The Danny O’Brien trained Orderofthegarter is the early favourite and looks set to run well third up.  The eye catcher from the Heatherlie, Dr Drill is on the second line of betting.  Chris Waller’s Kinane and Tony McEvoy’s Game Keeper are the other two under double figures and carry in form hoops M Dee and L Currie.

Shandy is next in the betting and hopefully she can secure a run, it would add great interest to the race.  Dabiyr was perhaps a little disappointing a fortnight ago but he had time off going into that run and will take improvement from that.  Mahamedeis will get a soft run from barrier 1 and jockey Rhys Mcleod rides this horse well.  The rest are all above $20-1 but the chances certainly do not stop there.  It’s going to be a great race.

1. Mirage Dancer – Scratched

2. Cape of Good Hope

It’s been a long time since he has put in a good run.  Has Group 1 talent but that looks a life time ago.

His first up run in the Heatherlie Stakes was excellent getting back and scraping paint to finish on the heels of the place getters.  He was the only one that significantly altered his in run position – the rest pretty much held their formation.   Fitter now, expect him to sit closer from barrier 6.  Stable is absolutely flying and are masters of training staying horses.  2 from 3 over 2000m reads well.  He is a leading chance.

4. Haky

Haky comes through the Heatherlie.  He started $100-1 there and was okay.  Not sure where he gets to in the run from a wide barrier in this?

5. Shared Ambition – Scratched

6. Steele Prince

Another coming through the Heatherlie – he hit the line okay first up in that race.  Ran 9^th in last years Melbourne Cup so the quality is there but might be looking for 2400m + to be a genuine winning chance.

7. Mahamedeis

Honest customer who loves this track.  Question whether he has the class to match it with these but will run an honest race.

8. Gallic Chieftain

I liked the way he finished off in the Heatherlie signifying he has come back well.  The step up in distance and fitness suits.  One of Victoria’s leading riders D Lane will give him a good steer from a good gate.  He can run a race here and is one at big odds for the multiples.

9. Orderofthegarter

He resumed off a lengthy break (nearly 2 years) at Flemington in July and was a good second behind Romancer.  He then came out and run really well beating all but Al Galayel after having a little break between runs, that should of brought him right on.  Ready to peak third up at 2000m.

10. In Good Health

He took many by surprise when he rode a hot speed and stuck onto win here three weeks ago coming off a mid week win.  The second horse Sirconni was subsequently beaten less than a length in a group 2 the following week – it had every favour to go past him.  He will roll forward again and who is to say the famous pairing of Moody and Nolan cannot repeat the dose.

11. Chapada

He was last seen in July where he started favourite in the Banjo Patterson at Flemington – he disappointed on that occasion.  It would be a big effort for him to win this.

12. Dabiyr

Dabiyr started a warm favourite at Moonee Valley in a weaker race and on face value disappointed.  He was a bit soft in the betting late which may have suggested he needed the run off the short break.  Fitter now 3^rd up and wouldn’t surprise me to see him run well.

13. Polly Grey

One from the Chris Waller army.  He comes through the Orderofthegarter race.  A big drifter on that occasion, hard to see him turning the tables.

14.  Game Keeper

His two runs back have been good. The latest he was sharply up in trip (1200 to 1700) and chased a hot speed.  Expecting Luke Currie to give him a good ride from a soft draw and he should be peaking third up.  He is right in this.

15. Think We’re Due

Set a hot speed in the Heatherlie and stuck on well.  Will go forward and make his own luck again.

16. Djukon – Scratched

17. The King

One of the emergencies to gain a start.  Hard to recommend on his two Australian attempts.

18. Kinane

This lightly raced Chris Waller gelding has a big spruik on it and comes down from Sydney for this assignment.  Thought he closed off well first up before getting back in an on pacers race second up at Randwick, he might have been a bit flat there staying at a similar distance.  From a wide gate he is going to get a fair way back but if they can make up ground look for him flashing home.

19. Super Girl

Super Girl is still relatively lightly raced and boasts a good third over a staying trip to Oceanex and King of Leogrance in the Autumn.  She was good first up at Sandown before a a plain run at her second start this preparation.  Up to a more suitable distance now, it would not surprise to see her improve significantly.  Knock out!

20.Shandy

Shandy needs one more scratching to secure a run.  She has progressed quickly through the grades this preparation and was a big win last start getting no favours in run – back, wide and without cover.  Fourth up looks perfect for her to have her first crack at open company.

The following are the top 4 selections for this years race.

Jo’s Tips	Lewis’ Tips
9. Order of the Garter	3. Dr Drill
14. Game Keeper	9. Order of the Garter
12. Dabiyr	10. In Good Health
10. In Good Health	14. Game Keeper

The track was rated as Good 3

Scratchings were 1. Mirage Dancer (GBR), 2. Cape Of Good Hope (IRL), 5. Shared Ambition (IRL), 16. Djukon (GBR).

Result	Horse	Margin
1st	9. Orderofthegarter
2nd	11. Chapada	0.8 length
3rd	6. Steel Prince	0.9 length
4th	10. In Good Health	1.6 lengths