Track: Slow-Heavy Weather: Showers

There is a full field of eighteen runners plus two emergencies for the $5,000,000 Group 1 Caulfield Cup and it looks almost certain that they will be racing on a severely rain affected surface.  Five of these had their last start in the Metropolitan Handicap, five in the Turnbull Stakes, three in the Bart Cummings, two in the Herbert Power and two in the Caulfield Stakes.  Chris Waller has four runners, Anthony & Sam Freedman have two, as do Maher/Eustace & Baker/Forsman.

The early favourite in the betting and headline act is Incentivise.  The Peter Moody trained gelding is looking to carry on his remarkable display of dominance over the last six months by making it nine wins in a row here.  He draws the widest barrier which creates even more interest and it will almost certainly mean you get a better price if you like him.  On the next line of betting is Delphi.  He is a lightly raced import trained by Anthony & Sam Freedman and backs up after a dominant win in the Herbert Power last Saturday.

Young Werther is a four year old son of Tavistock who ran a terrific race behind Incentivise at his last start.  The Chosen One finished third in this race last year and has been met with strong market support following the barrier draw.  He has drawn barrier nine which looks a perfect marble for him.  Nonconformist won his way into the race via the Naturalism Stakes on September 18 and impressed again with a narrow second in the Caulfield Stakes last week.  Explosive Jack won three derby’s earlier in the year and now gets out to a suitable trip.  Montefilia won the Metropolitan last start, while Duais won the Coongy Handicap on Wednesday and is on the three day back up.  The remaining runners are longer than $20-1.

1. Homesman

Top weight for this years race with just 55kg.  He won the Australian Cup earlier in the year and backs up after a fourth placing in last weeks Caulfield Stakes.  Consider for multiples.

2. Incentivise

Has won his last eight starts & is arguably the most exciting horse in the country.  He won the Makybe Diva first up over 1600m, then the Turnbull over 2000m last start.  Out to 2400m now where he won his only previous start by 12 lengths!  Is four from four on soft ground.  Draws wide but he likes to go forward so may not cause Prebble too many concerns.  Clearly the one they have to beat.

3. Explosive Jack

We made this gelding a black booker after he hit the line strongly in the Turnbull last start.  Out to 2400m now, the distance where two of his Derby wins came earlier in the year.  Won’t have any issues with a wet track.  Expecting him to run well.

4. The Chosen One

Kiwi trained gelding who was third in this race last year, before going onto run fourth in the Melbourne Cup. He ran home strongly into second in last weeks Herbert Power and is suited dropping in weight here.  Another who should run well.

5. Ocean Billy

Kiwi now under the care of Chris Waller.  He won the Auckland Cup over 3200m in March.  Interestingly his three prep runs in New Zealand have been over 1200, 1400 & 1600.  Now jumps to 2400 and doesn’t appear to race at his best on wet tracks.  Happy to risk.

6. Selino

Won the Group 1 Sydney Cup over 3200m in April.  Ran a good fourth at a big price in the Bart Cummings.  Ready to peak here fourth up.  Outside chance.

7. Persan

Returned with a good third behind Floating Artist at Flemington, then was only fair in Turnbull.  Back to his home track where he has a strong record suits.

8. Quick Thinker

The second of the Baker & Forsman runners.  He struggled on good ground in The Metropolitan last start.  Back onto a rain affected track will be much more to his liking!

9. Chapada

Finished ninth in this race last year.  Ran a cracking third in the Turnbull at a big price last start after running poorly here the start prior.  Think he prefers Flemington but is a rough place hope.

10. Delphi

Lightly raced Entire trained by the Freedman’s.  He is on the seven day back after winning the Herbert Power here by a length last week.  Prior was a good second in the Naturalism Stakes behind Nonconformist.  One of the chances.

11. Master Of Wine

Wasn’t a factor in his first three runs back from a spell, then got out to a trip in the Bart Cummings and ran a good third.  A repeat of that performance puts him in the mix here.

12. Montefilia

Quality four year old mare trained by David Payne at Rosehill.  She won the Group 1 Metropolitan over this distance last start and gets an inform Jye McNeil for this.  Each way claims.

13. Port Guilaume

Closed off okay two back, then was sixteen of sixteen in the Bart Cummings last time.  Prefer others.

14. She’s Ideel

Blinkers go back on for this daughter of Dundeel.  She won the Kingston Town two starts ago and is going well this prep.  Critically she gets back onto soft/heavy ground which she has an out standing record on.  Include in multiples at a big price.

15. Young Werther

Another we black booked after he ran a slashing second behind Incentivise in the Turnbull Stakes a fortnight ago.  Keeps Daniel Moor for this who is riding in fine form.  Easy to make a strong case for him here.

16. Nonconformist

Won the Naturalism here four weeks ago to book his way into this race and was a terrific run when going down by a nose in last weeks Caulfield Stakes.  He is in career best form and has an each way chance here.

17. Duais

Is on the three day back up after winning the Coongy Handicap here on Wednesday. Won the Queesland Oaks earlier in the year, before running second in the Australian Oaks over this distance.  In the mix.

18. Charms Star

Fourth up here.  Was midfield in the Metropolitan last start.  Poor record on soft ground.  Happy to risk.

19. Great House – 1st Emerg

First of the emergencies.  He was a nice winner of the Newcastle Cup, then ran home strongly into fifth in the Metropolitan last start.  May just be a level below these though.

20. Constantinople – 2nd Emerg

Needs two scratching’s to get a run.  He is racing well below his best.  Can’t see him playing a role here.

The following are the top 4 selections for this years race.

Jo’s Tips	Lewis’ Tips
2. Incentivise	2. Incentivise
10. Delphi	4. The Chosen One
17. Duais	15. Young Werther
14. She’s Ideel	14. She’s Ideel

Result	Horse	Margin
1st	2. Incentivise
2nd	16. Nonconformist	3.5 lengths
3rd	7, Persan	5.25 lengths
4th	12. Montefilia	5.35 lengths

The track was rated as Heavy 8.

Scratchings: 8. Quick Thinker, 20. Constantinople.