Australian Cup – 2021

Track: Good   Weather: Fine

Seventeen runners have accepted for the time honored Australian Cup.  The race is worth $1.5 million.  Eight of these are Group 1 winners and the last four Australian Cup’s have been won by horses in this years field.  Eight of them had their last start in the Peter Young Stakes at Caulfield, three of them ran in the Carlyon Cup and three are on a quick back up after racing at Flemington last week.  Warning is the only horse first up in this years race.

The favourite in the early betting is the 2020 Australian Cup winner Fifty Stars.  He stormed home last week to run second in the Blamey Stakes and also finished second to Arcadia Queen here in the spring.  That is good form for this.  The second favourite is Paradee.  She is a mare in form and only just missed here at Group 2 level during the spring.  The third favourite is Shared Ambition.  He scored at Randwick first up and then ran second in the Peter Young Stakes.

Steele Prince kept finding the line off a wide run first up and is suited stepping up to 2000m.  Nonconformist draws wide but has been good at his two runs back and looks to have been set for this race third up.  Defibrillate is a winning machine and will have his first run at Group 1 level on Saturday.  Jye McNeil partners Homesman and will be wearing the same silks that he won the 2020 Melbourne Cup in.  Humidor returned well in the CF Orr Stakes and is a three time Group 1 winner while Angel Of Truth will be hoping for a bit more pace than what he got first up in the Peter Young Stakes.  The remaining runners are longer than $20-1.

1. Humidor

The rising eight year old hit the line nicely first up in the CF Orr Stakes at Caulfield.  He won the Australian Cup on protest back in 2017 and continues to race well despite his age.  Wouldn’t shock to see him in the finish here.

2. Harlem

Won this race in 2018 and 2019 then ran fourth last year.  He raced in the inferior section of the track second up at Caulfield and wasn’t beaten far.  Won’t surprise to see him run well again here.

3. Fifty Stars

Backs up after charging home to finish second in the Blamey Stakes last weekend.  He won this race last year from barrier 13.  This time around he has barrier 3 which may present some traffic issues but if he can get some luck at a key stage he is a great chance to make it back to back wins.

4. Homesman

Likes to roll forward in his races and make his own luck.  His third placing was solid in the Peter Young first up.  No knock.

5. Warning

Resumes after finishing 12th in last years Melbourne Cup.  He ran a great race first up here in the spring and saves his best racing for Flemington.  The knock on him is that his last win was the 2019 VRC Derby.  So it’s been a while.

6. Angel Of Truth

Has had two fitness builders at Caulfield and is never far away.  Pike going on is a tick.

7. Best Of Days

Great ride from Oliver to dictate and control first up at Caulfield.  Had to do it much tougher last Saturday racing outside a brutal speed but he stuck on fairly well considering.  One of the each way chances.

8. Steel Prince

Put in a great pipe opener at Caulfield where he kept finding the line off a wide run.  Up to 2000m suits.  He’s as honest as they come and is a must for multiples.

9. Chapada

Worked home well first up in the Peter Young.  Can improve sharply here second up.

10. Platoon

We made him a black booker after a good run last week but I’m not sure this is the ideal set up.   A slowly run 1400m race up to 2000m, he is also stepping up in class.

11. Shared Ambition

Shared Ambition won first up in Sydney and then finished second to Paradee last start.  He looks primed third up but is another who may need some luck from an inside gate.  The money has been spot on with Chris Waller runners in Melbourne, in recent times, so it could pay to watch the betting.

12. Defibrillate

He has won 9 of his 13 starts and doesn’t know how to run a bad race.  He deserves a crack at Group 1 level.

13. San Huberto

I made him a black booker following a good first up run at Caulfield.  He finished a narrow second and was only getting stronger the further they went.  He might still need further but he maps to get a nice run from barrier six.

14. Nonconformist

Another who found the black book after running third first up.  He subsequently finished close up at Caulfield.  Ready to peak.

15. Miami Bound

She won the 2019 Crown Oaks.  Was unsuited last start but maybe looking for softer ground.

16. Miss Siska

Finished second to Best Of Days at Caulfield.  Loses Damian Lane but maps well.

17. Paradee

Made it a hatrick of wins in the Peter Young thanks to gem of a ride from John Allan.  Back onto her home track where she only narrowly missed at Group 2 level in the spring is a tick.  One of the each way chances.

The following are the top 4 selections for this years race.

Jo’s Tips	Lewis’ Tips
3. Fifty Stars	3. Fifty Stars
12. Defibrillate	1. Humidor
17. Paradee	5. Warning
1. Humidor	13. San huberto

Group 1 Newmarket Handicap 2021 (Flemington 1200m)

Group 1 Randwick Guineas 2021 (Randwick 1600m)

Group 2 Sires Produce Stakes Stakes 2021 (Flemington 1200m)

Group 2 AV Kewney Stakes 2021 (Flemington 1600m)