Track: Good   Weather: Fine

A field of 13 runners have accepted for the $1,000,000 Randwick Guineas and seven of them had their last start in the Group 2 Hobartville Stakes at Rosehill two weeks ago. Five runners are second-up, five are third-up and the other three are further into their campaigns. There are nine colts, three geldings and one filly and Chris Waller is the only trainer with multiple runners with three colts.

The early favourite is unbeaten New Zealand gelding Aegon who has five wins from five starts after winning the Hobartville last outing. Second favourite is Mo’unga who resumed from a spell for 3rd in the Group 3 CS Hayes Stakes three weeks ago, and has three wins from his five starts. Third favourite is Peltzer who followed a nice win in the G3 Eskimo Prince Stakes when resuming with 4th in the Hobartville.

North Pacific is a classy-looking colt who finished 2nd in the Hobartville second-up and could be a threat.  Prime Star was 3rd in the Hobartville and has placed at his last five starts. Harmony Rose is the only filly in the race and has won three of her four starts with her latest a 1.3 length win at Kensington. Lion’s Roar resumed for 5th in the Hobartville and will be fitter. King’s Legacy was 6th in that race, while The Elanora finished 7th.  All other runners are currently 40 to 1 or longer.

1. Aegon

The only unbeaten runner in the field, this New Zealand gelding has five wins from five starts. He won four races in New Zealand including the Group 2 Hawke’s Bay Guineas over 1400m, the Group 1 NZ 2000 Guineas over 1600m and the Listed Karaka Million 3Y over 1600m, before coming to Australia and winning the Hobartville Stakes by 1.8 lengths, beating a field of top three-year-olds. He looked a very special horse and I expect him to win again.

2. King’s Legacy

As a two-year-old he won the Group 1 ATC Sires Produce then the Group 1 Champagne Stakes. As a three-year-old he had four starts in the Spring where his best performance was 3rd in the Group 1 Golden Rose. He resumed from a 16 week spell for 6th in the Hobartville and will be fitter.

3. North Pacific

This classy-looking colt finished 2nd in the Hobartville second-up  He had two very good wins in 2020 where he won a 2YO handicap by 2.5 lengths over 1100m in July, then won the Group 3 Up And Coming Stakes over 1300m by an impressive 5.3 lengths. Looking back at his form both of those were on heavy tracks so maybe he needs rain to really shine, but he did run a close 2nd in the Group 1 Golden Rose in September and could be a threat.

4. Prime Star

He resumed for 0.5 length 2nd in the Inglis 3YO Sprint then was 3rd in the Hobartville last outing. He has two wins and seven places from 11 starts and is never too far from the winner.

5. Peltzer

With six wins and a place from 10 starts, this So You Think colt clearly has talent and should be in the finish. He followed a nice win in the G3 Eskimo Prince Stakes when resuming with 4th in the Hobartville.

6. Lion’s Roar

At his only start at Group level he finished 0.8 length 2nd in the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes. Resumed for 5th in the Hobartville and will be fitter. Could surprise.

7. Mo’unga

His breeding suggests he will be best over longer distances. He resumed from a spell for 3rd in the Group 3 CS Hayes Stakes three weeks ago, and has three wins from his five starts. Should go well.

8. The Elanora

This Redoubte’s Choice colt from the Waller stable won three races in a row in November/December, including the Group 3 Grand Prix Stakes over 2200m at Eagle Farm and the Group 3 NJC Spring Stakes over 1600m at Newcastle. Finished 7th in the Hobartville after an 8 week let-up and is not the roughest.

9. Bucharest

His two wins are a maiden handicap and a class 1 handicap. Seems to be aiming too high.

10. Marsannay

He won a BM 72 handicap at Kensington by 1.8 lengths at his latest start, but this is much, much tougher.

11. Here To Shock

This Shocking colt is currently the outsider of the field at triple figure odds. He has won two of his five starts, and after being checked at the 1200m chased steadily for 3.9 lengths 8th in the Group 1 Australian Guineas behind 300/1 winner Lunar Fox last week.

12. Wheelhouse

Resumed from a 42 week spell to win a 3YO maiden over 1400m by 2.3 lengths, then ran 4th in a BM 78 handicap.  Looking elsewhere.

13. Harmony Rose

The only filly in the race, she has won three of her four starts with her latest a 1.3 length win at Kensington. Carrying 2kg less than the boys, she is one to keep an eye on.

The following are the top 4 selections for this years race.

Jo’s Tips
1 Aegon
3 North Pacific
5 Peltzer
8 The Elanora

Group 1 Australian Cup 2021 (Flemington 2000m)

Group 1 Newmarket Handicap 2021 (Flemington 1200m)

Group 2 Sires Produce Stakes Stakes 2021 (Flemington 1200m)

Group 2 AV Kewney Stakes 2021 (Flemington 1600m)