Horse Racing Tips : NSW Thursday 10th March 2022

Best Bets

Our Canterbury Horse Racing Tips for this Thursday.

Selhurst Park | (Canterbury Race 4 No.5)

The son of Not A Single Doubt returned well first-up on the back of two nice trials and being gelded. He did begin a touch tardy on the day and gave up a key position to a horse who started better than him, who eventually ended up winning the race. Despite this, he hit the line well in probably the less favourable ground on the day. It has been 29 days since that run but that is due to abandoned meetings and poor draws. He gets a nice draw here and notably, Mark Newnham has taken the blinkers off which could prove to be a nice move, especially now that he is gelded. The stable know when to take blinkers off and when to put them on again with their strike rate over the last 12 months readying at 8/36 (22.2%) when blinkers have been removed. There is no designated leader in this race, so I am expecting his regular rider Josh Parr to kick up and hold a nice position. There is no queries on the wet ground and I think this is a perfect set-up for him to finally break his maiden status.

0.9 unit @ $4.50

Each Way

Kote (Canterbury Race 2 No.5)

I really think this bloke is massively over the odds, and he is worth a speck.

The son of Choisir was luckless on debut. After starting well, the speed to his inside ended up too much and as he pulled back to get a spot, those behind him kicked up inside him and he was stuck wide without cover. Schofield started a run on the bend and by the 200m mark he was nearly second late, a good 4 – 5 lengths off the leader. From that point, the colt found another gear and really hit the line well finishing 2.75 lengths off the winner and only within 1.6 lengths from second through to sixth. Amazingly, he ran a quicker last 200m than the first two across the line and fourth quickest in the entire race, all whilst having a torrid run on his debut on the heavy going. He has drawn wider but that should ensure he won’t get caught wide again if they adopt similar tactics. He isn’t the worst to have a nibble on and might surprise a few here.

0.2 unit @ $34.00

Other Bets

Asteria (Canterbury Race 1 No.3)

The full sister to Profiteer finally makes her race track debut and with the Slipper out of the question now, they will be looking to build the revs up for the Percy Sykes in April. She has only had the one trial and that was in December, and that does worry me a touch but Mark Newnham is one that rides his own horses too, so I am going to back his judgement in running her here, and I expect her to run well. Something else of note, that in her trial, she was keen in the run but still ran some nice sectionals, with a talented two-year-old in Revolutionary Miss running fourth in behind her.

0.8 unit @ $5.00

Aircraftman (Canterbury Race 3 No.1) & Spitfire (Canterbury Race 3 No.5)

Both of these runners have come up the two favourites in betting, and are at prices where we can back them both.

Aircraftman returned a gelding last start at Canterbury and ran well despite doing a couple of things wrong in the run. He raced a touch keen and layed in in the straight, but hit the line well to finish under a length from the winner Devil’s Throat. I love the Hugh Bowman is sticking with him and although he is drawn poorly and will have to go back again, the way that he hit the line last start will ease the thoughts, especially going up to the 1550m. I guess the draw and lack of wet track experience is played into the price.

Spitfire on the other hand is no stranger to the wet and running well in it and is a bit better than Aircraftman. The son of Pierro is fighting fit and coming into this race on the back of four runs, with his last three being in the placings. Last start at this track and distance, he led the field up before being run down by Ocean Shores but also managing to beat the rest of the field by at least 1.25 lengths. I expect them to lead or sit just off the leaders here before using his fitness to grind out a nice run.

1.2 units @ $3.60 / 0.8 unit @ $5.00

Jailbreak (Canterbury Race 7 No.3)

I think this bloke is slight overs in this race, especially considering four of his opposition are coming into this first-up whilst another three are second-up. The son of Hard Spun will be fifth-up coming into this contest on the back of a solid second at Warwick Farm behind Vigorous Flow. I expect the same tactics from an even better draw by apprentice Reece Jones, but with the Waterhouse/Bott runners drawn inside and out, maybe a trail third will be ideal. There is a slight query over running on the wet, but everything else looks in sync for him to run well and if he can tick that last box, he will be hard to beat.

0.4 unit @ $10.00

Best Lay

Headliner (Canterbury Race 4 No.9)

First-up on heavy ground at Canterbury from a tough draw spells disaster, especially since she is prone to missing the kick. Her better runs have been on top of the ground and I personally think she will be better for the run and perform better on a bigger track.

$2.80

Race 1

3 Asteria
6 Willinga Beast
1 Deep Expectation
5 Sweet Baby Boom

Race 2

5 Kote
2 Spacewalk
10 Alpha One
8 Surf on Turf

Race 3

1 Aircraftman
5 Spitfire
10 Ultimate Pride
9 Scats Surfer Girl

Race 4

5 Selhurst Park
7 Compassionate
9 Headliner
3 Minister

Race 5

4 Sensationalisation 
7 Ringarosa
2 Splendiferous
3 Finepoint

Race 6

5 Sword Point
1 Easy Campese
2 Casino Mondial
10 Azarmin

Race 7

3 Jailbreak
10 Publicist
4 Juventus
7 Gracilistyla

Race 8

3 Zarastro
4 Cotehele
8 Ruby Kisses
10 Tonneofgrit

View more tips

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2022-03-10T08:33:03+11:00

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