Round 17 in Review  

A slow start last week but things quickly turned around, the end result being a very profitable round.  Our multi play again saluted as well as the two biggest line bets – these being Fremantle and Western Bulldogs to cover.  Both did so with ease.  Click here to see last week’s preview and betting strategy.

Week: + 3.85 units l Overall: + 14.4 units

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Looking forward to the final round of the season with some important games to finalise top 8 and top 4 positions.  St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs are the likely teams to fill the last two positions in the top 8 however there are scenarios where both teams could still miss were they too lose.

Port Adelaide and Brisbane finalised their position at the top of the table after both won convincingly last week against Essendon and Sydney respectively. This leaves two positions available to secure a double chance, Geelong and Richmond will fill these spots if they are to win but were one to lose then West Coast can make their way in to the top 4.

West Coast $1.10 v North Melbourne $7

Expecting West Coast to do what they need to, to secure the four points and keep their top 4 chances alive against the Kanga’s.  The Eagles are still missing many stars and you can add Jeremy McGovern to that lengthy list after he tore a hamstring last week.

North have been under the pump in the media this week for their poor season.  After winning their first two games its amazing how badly they have fallen away.  I can see them giving the weakened Eagles some level of resistance in this and for that reason I think the hefty line is too much of a risk.  I am preferring to play West Coast at the short odds to win in multis.

Melbourne $1.5 v Essendon $2.6

An intriguing game of footy on Saturday afternoon.

Melbourne have been criticised heavily this year for their inconsistency and have a bad habit of stringing together wins only then to drop a game they shouldn’t.  That being said, they have produced 5 wins from their past 8 games which is more than respectable.

That record looks a lot better than Essendon’s.  The Bombers have just 1 win and a draw from their last 8 and they have been beaten by 50 + points in their last two games.

Teams are yet to be released as a I write this article but with very little to play for it wouldn’t surprise to see some of the Bombers higher profile players ,who are carrying injuries, put in cotton wool for the final game of the season.  I speak of the likes of Daniher, Hooker and Heppel.  Melbourne’s list is reasonably healthy.

Essendon will be looking for a good performance to take some momentum into the break but the Demons have a lot more to play for, with a chance to play finals footy.  Melbourne should put the Don’s away and cover the line.

Adelaide $3.95 v Richmond $1.24

After looking like posting a winless season Adelaide have put together three wins in a row.  Amazing!  They were dominant over Carlton last week and are starting to play some good footy under coach Matt Nicks.

That being said, they run into a rampant Richmond side here that are looking to secure a top 4 spot.  The Tiges look unstoppable at the moment and its hard to see them losing this one.

Richmond to win.

Sydney $5 v Geelong $1.18

Assuming West Coast are to beat bottom placed North Melbourne then Geelong must win this to make the top 4 and surely they will.

Sydney have showed good signs for the future this year but are still missing a lot of quality all over the park. The Swans are showing signs of tiring.

They were outgunned by the Lions last week and the week before coughed up a big lead to Carlton who are a middle of the rung side.

The Cats put in their first poor performance for months against Richmond last week and will be looking to bounce back quickly with finals around the corner.  Their experience counts for plenty in these games and they have a habit of putting away lower ranked sides by big margins.

The line has already grown since markets opened and it would not surprise to see it get close to 30 points by the time they bounce the ball.  The Cats look a good bet to cover the line.

Lewis’ Betting Strategy

Essendon v Melbourne – Melbourne Line (-11.5)

  • 1 unit @ $1.91

Geelong v Sydney – Geelong Line (-26.5)

  • 2 units @ $1.91

Multi – West Coast / Melbourne / Richmond / Geelong

  • 2 units @ $2.41

* Please note that I work off a betting bank of 100 units and my maximum outlay is 2.5 units.

Futures Bet

2 units @ $3.75 – Richmond to win the Premiership

For those of you who don’t mind locking away your money for a month or two the $3.75 for Richmond to win this years premiership still represents value.

I had question marks over whether the Tigers were going as well as previous years.

However when they have come up against genuine contenders in the last month (West Coast and Geelong) they have put both sides away with ease.

It gets even better for Tigers fans, knowing they still have two All Australian’s to come back into this side – Shane Edwards and Dion Prestia.

I am expecting them to win it again.