We were 1 point away from going a perfect 3 from 3 last week with Great Western Sydney defeating Carlton by 9 points – they needed to win by 10 or more to cover the line. The Western Bulldogs had a narrow win over West Coast which meant they covered the line of 7.5 comfortably. Our four leg multi which paid $3.36 was also successful. Click here to see last week’s preview and betting strategy.
Week: + 2.52 units l Overall: + 10.55 units
AFL ROUND 17 PREVIEW
Round 17 begins on Thursday night – it is the second last round of the season and this round will go along way to deciding which teams play in the finals. As it stands, there are five teams that have secured a top 8 position – Geelong, Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Richmond and West Coast.
St Kilda also look set to make finals for the first time in 10 years but need to win at least 1 of their last 2 games to make it a guarantee. Collingwood, Western Bulldogs and Greater Western Sydney are the three teams that appear likely to fill the final 2 positions in the 8. Melbourne and Carlton are still mathematical chances but would need to win both games and have results go there way to make it.
St Kilda $1.70 v West Coast $2.2
A huge game for both clubs. St Kilda as I mentioned are looking to secure a top 8 spot and they are still an outside chance to make the top 4. West Coast need to win to keep their top 4 chances alive.
St Kilda opened outsiders in the betting for this match but have shortened considerably since markets opened and are now a clear favourite. I would suggest this comes largely on the back of the team news with the Eagles losing five players to injury, and there is still no sign of Luke Shuey or Elliot Yeo. The positive is they regain skipper Shannon Hurn and ruckman Nic Natanui who was a late out for their clash with the Western Bulldogs. The Saints have two big inclusions, in Max King and Tim Membrey.
It is a big test for how far St Kilda have come but their football has remained relatively consistent all season. West Coast have been below their best in recent weeks and given the list of injuries I think St Kilda will be able to get over the line here.
Geelong $1.72 v Richmond $2.15
I feel like a broken record, but we are set to be treated to yet another block buster on Friday Night Footy. The prize on offer is a big one – a guaranteed spot in the top 4.
This is the first time these two teams have met since last years preliminary final – Richmond were the victors on that occasion.
Richmond had the luxury of the round 16 bye but continue to find the headlines for the wrong reason. This week Sydney Stack and Callum Coleman-Jones found themselves in a drunken altercation and have been sent home for breaking covid protocol.
The Geelong Footy Club seem to be handling the season as well as any team and that is no surprise given their experience. The Cats dismantled the Bombers last week to make it 6 wins a row.
Tom Hawkins is leading the way for the Cats and I can’t wait to see him line up on Richmond’s young key defender Noah Balta who has also been in sensational form. The winner of this battle could go a long way in deciding the winner of the game.
Geelong look a rock solid bet at the line.
North Melbourne $2.60 v Fremantle $1.50
Both of these teams finished in the bottom 8 last season and appointed new coaches for this season.
It has been a season to forget for Rhys Shaw and his Kangaroo’s who currently sit 17th on the AFL ladder.
Fremantle on the other hand have continued to impress under coach Justin Longumir. There midfield still features super star Nat Fyfe and veteran David Mundy but it is youngsters Adam Cerra, Andrew Brayshaw and likely AFL Rising Star Winner Caleb Serong who are providing great hope for Fremantle fans.
The Dockers were clinical in their win over Melbourne on Monday night and I don’t see why they can’t take care of North Melbourne in this one.
I am keen to play the Dockers in multis and at the line.
Hawthorn $3.30 v Western Bulldogs $1.33
Every year we tend to see some big blow outs towards the later rounds of the season. Clubs that are unable to make finals look to play the kids and naturally motivation is not what it would be if they were in the hunt for finals action. I am putting the Hawthorn Footy Club firmly in this boat.
The Western Bulldogs on the other hand have everything to play for and must keep winning and winning well to give themselves a chance of making the finals. They have had a really good month of footy and I am expecting them to come charging out of the gates in this. If it wasn’t for poor kicking they would of beaten the Eagles by 5+ goals earlier in the week.
Western Bulldogs should win this easily and I am happy to play them both at the line and in multi’s.
Lewis’ Betting Strategy
St Kilda v West Coast – St Kilda Line (-5.5)
1 unit @ $1.91
Geelong v Richmond – Geelong Line (-4.5)
1 unit @ $1.91
North Melbourne v Fremantle – Fremantle Line (-9.5)
1.5 units @ $1.91
Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs – Western Bulldogs line (-18.5)
1.5 units @ $1.91
Multi – Fremantle / Western Bulldogs / Port Adelaide
2.5 units @ $2.25
* Please note that I work off a betting bank of 100 units and my maximum outlay is 2.5 units.