Round 14 in Review  

We had three small bets last week. One was successful – either team to win by under 19.5 points in the Geelong vs Western Bulldogs game. Unfortunately St Kilda came up just short against Melbourne and West Coast were well beaten by Richmond. Click here to see last week’s preview and betting strategy.

Week: -1.1 units l Overall: +8.03 units

Back a Winner AFL stock image


For those not fully across what is happening in the AFL this year we are now in our second block of virtually 17 consecutive days of footy (last Monday was the only day where footy won’t be played).

A quick update with some news from around the league…

It was announced this week that the AFL grand final – as many predicted – will be held at the Gabba this year. It will take place on Saturday 24th October and will be either a twilight or night game for the first time ever.

For those of us who are fans of both racing and AFL this promises to be one of the great days with the Cox Plate to be run during the afternoon on the same date.

Greater Western Sydney $1.45 v Carlton $2.75

This game is close to a must win for both sides if they are to be a chance of playing finals footy this year.

Greater Western Sydney were much to good for Fremantle last week and are showing signs that their footy is trending in the right direction. Fremantle arguably should of gone close to beating Richmond on Wednesday night so that form line looks okay.

The Giants were also good the week before in the second half against West Coast in Perth.

However, they will be without gun midfielder Josh Kelly who is set to miss this game with concussion. Carlton has injury troubles of its own with Patrick Cripps leaving the field late with a knee injury. He, unlike Kelly will play in this game but whether he is at full capacity is yet to be seen.

Last weeks game against Collingwood was huge for Carlton’s season. They took a lead into the half time break but were very disappointing after half time against an under strength Collingwood outfit.

Giants to cover the line.

Brisbane $1.50 v Collingwood $2.60

We have been treated to a number of really good games on Friday nights this year and this is set to continue with Brisbane taking on Collingwood.

Brisbane have had a 9 day break which can only be seen as advantageous at this point in the season given how much footy has been played. They are a relatively young group and looked to be feeling the pinch running out of legs against St Kilda.

The Lions poor kicking has been a huge topic of conversation in recent weeks and there is no doubt it is becoming an issue. Bad kicking is bad football so they will need to get this right leading into finals.

Collingwood were very good against Carlton after half time, running all over the top of the Blues.   I must admit I did not see that coming given how many good players they have missing from their team. Perhaps it saids more about the Blues than it does about the Pies.

Brisbane, with the break and the fitter list should be able to get over the line here.

St Kilda $1.31 v Hawthorn $3.75

This is a huge game for the St Kilda football club. They looked almost certain to make the finals for the first time in 10 years but after losing a couple on the bounce that is no longer the case.

This being said, they have lost these games by under a kick so there is no need for panic. Melbourne played well last week and it was just some poor inside 50 entries that let the Saints down. The week before they should of arguably beaten Brisbane who are right in premiership contention.

Hawthorn have much less to play for and are coming off a very poor loss to Adelaide. Round 9 is the last time the Hawks won a game.

St Kilda to win.

Geelong $1.31 v Essendon $3.50

I am looking forward to this game on Sunday afternoon.

Geelong continued on their winning way last week with a good come from behind victory against the Western Bulldogs. They were 6 goals down at quarter time and looked in desperate trouble but fought back strongly to take the points.

They had the round 15 bye which gives them a nice 9 day break going into this game. This can only be seen as advantageous.

Essendon have regained some of their better players from injury in recent weeks. Most notably Joe Daniher who played a critical part in their epic come from behind win against the Hawks.

Teams are yet to be released for this game but their has to be some doubt on whether Daniher and some of the other Bombers players who have spent significant time on the sidelines back up for this game.  You would think they would be cautious.

Geelong should be too strong for the Bombers.

Western Bulldogs $2.29 v West Coast $1.60

Another really intriguing round 16 clash!

Richmond ended West Coast’s winning streak last week – I thought the Eagles were pretty ordinary in that. They have since played Essendon and managed to get a win but again were far from convincing.

The Western Bulldogs are starting to click. They would be filthy that they managed to squander a big lead against Geelong but previous to this had big wins over the Crows and Demons.

Interested to see how they play the ruck situation. In recent weeks they have been using midfielders as ruckman through out the game. This is potentially fraught with danger against West Coast superstar Nic Nataui and could have a huge impact on the game.

This being said I think the Dogs are over the odds here – backing them at the line.

Lewis’ Betting Strategy

Greater Western Sydney v Carlton – Greater Western Sydney Line (-9.5)

  • 5 units @ $1.91

Western Bulldogs v West Coast – Western Bulldogs Line (+7.5)

  • 5 units @ $1.91

Multi – GWS / Brisbane / St Kilda / Geelong

  • 1 unit @ $3.66