Round 13 in Review  

A small profit last week.  The multi was again successful – as were the Western Bulldogs Head to Head and St Kilda Line bets.  West Coast had their line covered for most of the game before a late surge by Greater Western Sydney brought the margin back under the 18.5 that we needed to cover the line – very frustrating!  Click here to see last week’s preview and betting strategy.

Week: +1.68 units l Overall: +9.13 units

Back a Winner AFL stock image


Let’s take a quick look at what’s been happening in the AFL this week.

The Richmond Footy Club were again in the news for the wrong reasons.  Tom Lynch was referred straight to the tribunal for yet another striking charge but avoided suspension.  Dylan Grimes and Nick Valustin also came under scrutiny for staging incidents.  They were slapped with fines by the MRO but these were successfully contested on Wednesday.

Still no decision as to where this year’s Grand Final will be held but I believe we are getting close.  Brisbane is in the box seat by all reports with Perth challenging hard.  Were it to be held in Perth then it gives West Coast a big advantage over the rest of the competition such is their dominance at home.  I would have West Coast as clearly the team to beat in this case.  Should it be in Brisbane then I think it’s a wide-open race.

Thursday night sees the start of another run of consecutive days of footy.  Games will be played on every day of the week through until Monday the 14th of September.  A footy bonanza!

West Coast $2.25 v Richmond $1.67

This is the first of the block busters to look forward to this weekend with the premiers from the past two years going head to head.

West Coast

The Eagles are on a terrific run and back somewhere close to their premiership form of 2018.  They were dominant over Greater Western Sydney despite the final score showing just a 2 goal margin in their favour.

They are hard to fault anywhere on the ground.  A fit Nic Naitanui is a huge advantage and gives a star-studded midfield first access.  Their backline is rock solid and has only been bolstered by the return of Jeremy McGovern – he was sensational last week.


It was at about this time last year that Richmond started to really build momentum which led to a successful premiership campaign; and they are threatening to do it again.  One area they do need to fix is the connection between their forwards and midfield.  Hard to pin point exactly where things are breaking down but i am sure they have been working hard on this and it will be quickly rectified.

It is important to note that West Coast is back on the road and a part of “hub life” and of course away from their home ground Optus Stadium.  It was well documented they that they did not enjoy being in a hub the first time round, but I would suggest that they will do things a lot differently this time.

Despite the venue I think West Coast are entitled to be favourites.  Happy to have a small play on them to win by 1-39.

Western Bulldogs $2.55 v Geelong $1.52

Friday night footy promises to be a beauty with the resurgent Dogs taking on the Cats.

This is a massive game of footy for both clubs.  The Western Bulldogs are still fighting hard for a finals spot.  The Geelong Football club has a finals birth all but secure but need to keep winning to ensure they finish in the all-important top four.

As we talked about last time the Western Bulldogs are starting to play to their potential.  We know how much talent they have through their midfield but the return from injury of Aaron Naughton has really given the forward line an extra dimension.

Geelong did what they had to do to get the job done against Adelaide and put another picket in the fence.

In summary I think this will be a tight contest all night.  Going to suggest having a small play on either team to win by under 19.5 points @ $1.9.

Melbourne $2.05 v St Kilda $1.8

This shapes as a really interesting clash in the Northern Territory on Saturday night.

After a shaky start St Kilda played well last week against the Lions and probably should have ended up pinching that game such was their last quarter dominance.  They will get young gun Hunter Clark back for this game.

The Demons had won three in a row against lower ranked / injury plagued sides before facing the Western Bulldogs last week.

They took a small lead into the half time break before putting together a very ordinary second half.  It must be extremely frustrating being a Demon supporter at the moment as there is no doubt the talent is there, but they cannot build any sort of consistency.

St Kilda have let a couple of games that they should have won against the easier teams slip this year, so I wonder if that is built into the price here.

This is a critical game for St Kilda with a win going a long way to securing a finals birth.  They are becoming more and more reliable each week, so I am happy to play them at the line.

Lewis’ Round 14 Betting Strategy

Lewis’s Betting Round 14 Strategy

West Coast v Richmond – West Coast to Win

  • 1 unit @ $2.60

Geelong v Western Bulldogs – Either team to win by 19 or Less

  • 1 unit @ $1.90

Multi – St Kilda to Win / Port Adelaide to Win

  •  1 unit @ $2.05