Another fantastic week with all three of our main betting plays saluting.
Geelong got us off to a flyer on Friday night. We took the line (5.5) and they have ended up thrashing the Power by 60 points – a very comfortable watch.
The multi play which was comprised of three head to head bets was also comfortable viewing with all three sides winning by 3 goals or more.
Our Richmond line bet was far from comfortable, the Tigers dominated the first quarter but could not put it on the scoreboard, while the Suns made the most of their chances. A late flurry of Richmond goals has seen them just cover the line in the dying stages.
Week: +4.3 units l Overall: +7.55 units
AFL ROUND 13 PREVIEW
The AFL season comes up for air as we see a short period with out footy for the first time in 20 days.
The AFL ladder is starting to take shape with some familiar sides forcing their way into the top four in recent weeks, I talk about West Coast and Geelong but the premiership favourites and reigning premiers Richmond sit in sixth spot and have some work to do in the coming weeks if they are to make their way in to the four and secure the all important double chance.
Collingwood and GWS had big losses to bottom eight sides last week. They need to turn things around quickly if they are to have any chance of being legitimate flag contenders.
I am interested to see what the Western Bulldogs and Melbourne do over the next couple of weeks – they are two sides that are seemingly finding form and could pinch one of the top eight spots off a Collingwood or GWS.
It is also important to acknowledge that this round is Sir Doug Nicholls round. Sir Doug Nicholls round recognizes and celebrates the contributions of Indigenous players to our great game.
Melbourne $1.71 V Western Bulldogs $2.15
Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs meet on Saturday afternoon in what may prove to be a crucial game in determining who makes and who misses the finals.
The Dogs made light work of a woeful Crows out fit with young gun Aaron Naughton the star of the show kicking six. The Demons started outsiders against Collingwood but were dominant going onto win by 56 points. That’s three big wins in a row now for them.
Teams are yet to be released for this game so we are flying blind on that front – but expecting skipper Max Gawn to return for the Demons. The Bulldogs are also likely to get a few back.
It promises to be a good contest. The Western Bulldogs represent the value here in the head to head market at $2.15.
Port Adelaide $1.18 v Hawthorn $5
Port Adelaide return home to Adelaide to play the Hawthorn Football Club. Port remain on top of the ladder despite being thrashed by Geelong on Friday night in what came as a surprise to many. Hawthorn had another big loss which was only compounded by a season ending knee injury to star back James Sicily. The Hawks will also lose top midfielder Jager O’Merea for this game.
The line sits at -24.5 and I think it should be much higher. Hawthorn are on their knees and surely many of their older players would be starting to struggle for motivation. Port will be keen to attest and should be able to cover the line.
Richmond $1.18 v Essendon $4.8
The clash between Richmond and Essendon every year is the feature game of Sir Doug Nicholls round. Normally played at the MCG – Dream time at the G will this year be held for the first in the Northern Territory – this should be a terrific spectacle.
Richmond did what they needed to do to secure a win against a resilient Suns side on Monday night. Essendon on the other hand were well beaten by St Kilda. I watched that game closely and Essendon were simply out classed and out played all over the field.
Again we are with out teams for this game but even if Essendon are to get 3 or 4 players back from a long injury list it is hard to see them challenging Richmond.
Brisbane $1.44 v StKilda $2.80
This is the match of the round for me with two of the inform sides of the competition meeting on Brisbane’s home ground the Gabba. Both of these sides have won four of their past five matches.
Brisbane are a good footy side but perhaps are a little bit over rated at this point in time. They are giving away a big start at the line (15.5) points after only just scraping in over a bottom side in North Melbourne.
The Saints returned to form last week and it was less than a month ago when they beat Port Adelaide on their home ground in an impressive display.
St Kilda at the line the bet in this one.
West Coast $1.33 v Greater Western Sydney $3.30
West Coast is one of, if not the form side of the competition. They made it seven in a row as they easily accounted for the Hawks. The same can not be said for GWS who had a horrible loss against Sydney – they would have had the points penciled in for that game.
Expecting GWS to respond but I don’t think it will be enough. West Coast are just about unstoppable on their home patch and beat up on virtually any side that enters their fortress – especially out of form sides.
The line is 18.5 points and they should be able to cover this.
Geelong to make the top 4 – The $1.62 on offer looks good odds for a good side with an easy run home.
Lachie Neale to win the Brownlow – The Brownlow medal is close to over in my opinion. Lachie Neale has had an outstanding year and should be miles in front of any other player in the voting. He is showing no signs of slowing down – $1.45.
Lewis’ Round 13 Betting Strategy
Multi – 2.25 units @ $1.85
Port Adelaide – Win
Richmond – Win
West Coast – Win
Melbourne v Western Bulldogs – Western Bulldogs Win – .75 units @ $2.15
Port Adelaide v Hawthorn – Port Adelaide Line (-24.5) – 1 unit @ $1.91
Brisbane v St Kidla – St Kilda Line (+15.5) – 1 unit @ $1.91
West Coast v GWS – West Coast Line (+18.5) 1 unit @ $1.91