Round 11 in Review  

Limited games meant only one investment last week, which was the under option in the Total Match Points – Essendon vs GWS.  Unfortunately, this bet was unsuccessful.

Week: -1.5 units l Overall: +3.25 units

Back a Winner AFL stock image


Back to a full round of games to bet into this weekend. Port Adelaide v Geelong on Friday night is with out doubt the match of the round – the rest of the games are not overly exciting on paper but I think there is some value to be found.

Geelong $2.10 v Port Adelaide $1.75

Two of the competition heavy weights meet on Friday night.

I could not have been more impressed with the Cats who controlled their match against the inform St Kilda on Monday from siren to siren.

Port Adelaide were also exceptional against Richmond, as they have been for much of the year. That game was finals like with the intensity around the ball and the Power youngsters stood up to the Richmond pressure with a hostile home crowd right behind them.

With Port Adelaide back on the road, I think the value lies with Geelong – I am suggesting a bet on the Cats at the line.

Brisbane $1.16 v North Melbourne $5.2

I will keep this short and sharp.

Brisbane keep winning and North Melbourne continue to struggle. With the proximity of games, I am wary of getting involved with any big line margins but Brisbane as a win bet should be safe for multis.

St Kilda $1.45 v Essendon $2.75

St Kilda were brought crashing back down to earth by Geelong on Monday while Essendon were brave to fight back and pinch a draw against the Gold Coast.

Essendon are missing a lot of their better players and have a short break going into this game. The Saints have a much fitter list and I think they can bounce back quickly here. St Kilda to win.

Richmond $1.30 v Gold Coast $3.50

The last two times these teams have met, Richmond has won by an average of 109 points.

There is no doubt that the Suns have improved this season however, I think they may be starting to show signs of burn out while Richmond are starting to find form.

I think Richmond should win comfortably.

Lewis’ Round 12 Betting Strategy

Multi – 1.5 units @ $2.18

  • Brisbane – Win
  • St Kilda – Win
  • Richmond – Win

Geelong Line (+5.5) – 1.5 units @ $1.91

Richmond Line (-20.5) – 1.5 units @ $1.91

Richmond to win by 60 points or more – .2 units @ $8.50