Super Rugby Pacific Round 3 Selections

There isn’t much to write about this match. Moana Pasifika will finally have their Super Rugby debut after a 2-week delay but they have to face the best team in the competition. Fitness is going to be an issue for them late in the match and this could get very ugly.

It’s going to be great to see them in this match and maybe their enthusiasm and passion early on can give them a balance for the game, but I think they will be over-run in the end. Crusaders by a lot.

Predictions:

Tip: Crusaders (No Market)

Line: Crusaders -46.5 ($1.92)

Margin: Crusaders 13+ (No Market)

*Prices via TAB

The Drua showed glimpses of improvement in their game against the Brumbies but they were no match for them in the end. Turnovers again plagued them throughout and their line-out showed some glaring holes. They will get better as the tournament progresses and we are thankful for having them. The Rebels were disappointing and you could sense it in the Captains voice at the end of their match against the Force. They failed to score a try, missed 22 tackles, lost 2 rucks, lost 3 line-outs, conceded 15 penalties, and had a player sent off, it wasn’t a great night. They can turn it all around against the Drua here.

Rebels to win and get some confidence back.

Predictions:

Tip: Melbourne Rebels ($1.06)

Line: Melbourne Rebels -16.5 ($1.88)

Margin: Melbourne Rebels 13+ ($1.58)

*Prices via TAB

This game has been totally misread by the bookies in my opinion so hopefully, we can capitalise on it. The Force was immaculate against the Rebels in Melbourne, holding them to just 3 points in a dominating display. Despite line-outs and turnovers hurting them, it didn’t hurt them where it counted, on the scoreboard as they were defensively strong and clinical in attack. The Reds were the epitome of tough on Friday night in the driving rain, holding out the Waratahs who had a lot of possession and territory. It did come at a cost though, they lost the scrum-half Tate McDermott to an ankle injury and flanker Angus Scott-Young to a knee injury, and both are set to be sidelined for four to six weeks whilst they still have Liam Wright and Hunter Paisami on the sidelines and of course their prop Taniela Tupou is trying to shake a back injury which ruled him out pre-game.

The Force return home for the first time in a long time, with a solid match against the Brumbies and a nice win against the Rebels, so they are flying high as the Reds have to travel west with injury clouds and battle soreness. The Force can win this at a nice price and the line is just silly.

Predictions:

Tip: Western Force ($2.70)

Line: Western Force +5.5 ($1.85)

Margin: Western Force 1-12 ($3.80)

*Prices via TAB

Well, the Blues had a massive opportunity leading 32-14 with 10 minutes to go, and they let it slip, conceding three tries and going down by one point. They struggled a bit at the breakdown, losing five rucks in the process but it’s like their match fitness wore out. They will be better for the game and I expect them to move on and show their favouritism going forward. The Chiefs were clinical in their opening game win against the Highlanders but had their round 2 game postponed. So both of these teams have had just one game and fitness will be a key aspect late in this game.

The Blues are coming off a big game and I expect them to sharpen up a touch and be ready for this. Blues in a close one.

Predictions:

Tip: Blues ($1.58)

Line: Blues -4.5 ($1.85)

Margin: Blues 1-12 ($2.90)

*Prices via TAB

The Hurricanes pulled off an incredible comeback against the Blues last week, scoring three tries in the final 10 minutes to salute by one on the siren. They were down 32-19 with 10 minutes to go, and it’s like the Blues ran out of puff, which shows how valuable match fitness can be. But until that, the Hurricanes were lacking defensively, missing 32 tackles and losing two line-outs. Meanwhile, the Highlanders scored the first try on the Crusaders and didn’t score another try and were pointless from the 45th minute onwards. Stats wise they weren’t that bad in comparison to the Crusaders, the Crusaders were just too good overall. Losing 3 line-outs and a scrum didn’t help their cause.

The Hurricanes get to play out of their home stadium for this one and will be feeling amazing after beating the Blues. I expect them to come out fast here and really put the Highlanders under some pressure early. Hurricanes will be too good on the later stages.

Predictions:

Tip: Hurricanes ($1.40)

Line: Hurricanes -6.5 ($1.85)

Margin: Hurricanes 13+ ($2.55)

*Prices via TAB

The Waratahs are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Reds where they were in attack most of the game yet failed to capitalize on their opportunities. There were times the Waratahs should have taken the easy points and didn’t and then when they did, they missed two easy conversions… well easy in normal weather. For the most part, the attack showed promise and unlike most teams in the wet, the Waratahs were expansive in their play, but in turn, conceded 19 turnovers. Defensively they were good, only missing 5 tackles in the entire game. The Brumbies had an easy game against the Fijian Drua which should have been higher with only 2 conversions made from 7 attempts. Despite the big scoreline, the Brumbies missed 22 tackles which were more than their opposition and conceded 17 penalties.

The Brumbies are a deserved favourite being undefeated but they haven’t had a tough game yet, and this will be one. The Waratahs will be looking to avenge their last-start loss to the Reds and they look like a different team this year. They are value once again at the head-to-head price and the line is nice because this one will be close.

Predictions:

Tip: NSW Waratahs ($2.90)

Line: NSW Waratahs +7.5 ($1.88)

Margin: NSW Waratahs 13+ ($4.00)

*Prices via TAB