Melbourne Storm v Manly Sea Eagles
Friday 10/9/21
There’s two key factors for this game, will Storm playmaker Cameron Munster play (and will he be at his best if he does) and how will the game’s most influential player Manly star Tom Trbojevic be stopped? The Storm haven’t lost at this stadium in nine outings and have also won their past four against the Sea Eagles and they also have such great depth that Munster’s potential absence can likely be replaced. While this Manly side is prone to making plenty of mistakes (No.1 in handling errors all season), it’ll be interesting to see how that plays out in the heat of finals pressure. I think Manly can be competitive, especially if Tommy can make an impact, so let’s trust they can keep this one close.
Suggested bet: 1.5u Manly +8.5 at $1.91
Sydney Roosters v Gold Coast Titans
Saturday 11/9/21
It does look a mismatch here with the Roosters looking for eight straight wins over the Titans. While the market agrees, the Titans are coming off a sublime performance to secure their finals spot last week. They were near flawless beating the Warriors and will take plenty of confidence from that outing. However, the Roosters are clearly a different proposition, and the Titans will need to step it up a few notches again if they want to be competitive here. I’ve been waiting for the Roosters to succumb to their lengthy injury list all year, but they just keep responding. How long will it last and can it be sustained in finals pressure? It’s also hard to know how the Titans will fare under finals pressure but they have the talent to be in this for a long way. At the odds, have to have something on the Titans in a tricky clash.
Suggested bet: 1u Titans win at $4.10 and 2u Titans +11.5 at $1.90
Penrith Panthers v South Sydney Rabbitohs
Saturday 11/9/21
The premiership credentials of one of these sides will skyrocket on Saturday night. I liked how the Rabbitohs earned the win early last week against the Dragons and then took the foot off late to preserve something for this match. But the big question remains how far the Rabbitohs can go without Latrell Mitchell as he’s such a vital cog in their playmaking. Penrith has also dominated clashes between these two sides in recent times – and it is hard to see it taking a deviation here. A full-strength Panthers side should be hungry to send a message to the competition that they are well and truly in the mix to take out this year’s premiership. I don’t expect them to take the foot off the accelerator either.
Suggested bet: 4u Penrith -10.5 at $1.95
Parramatta Eels v Newcastle Knights
Sunday 12/9/21
I find this the most intriguing match-up of the four clashes in the opening week of finals. Parramatta are limping into the finals, despite somehow snaring victory against a tired Storm outfit two weeks earlier. All of their surrounding form has deep question marks and it makes me think they are well unders around $1.40. They’ve also lost their past three finals matches. There is cracks in the Knights too, however, losing to the improving Broncos last week, but it was a game which meant little to their finals preparations. Prior to that, the Knights stringed five wins together. I think the Knights can be competitive here, but they’ll have to erase the 40-4 drubbing they copped the last time these two sides met.
Suggested bet: 2u Knights win at $2.92