Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints
Monday 12th September – 3 am Sydney time
Let’s start with the Saints who would have considered 2021 a failure despite winning nine of their seventeen matches. Jameis Winston was a key part of the Saints line-up and despite playing only 11 games in the last two seasons, was offered a 2-year $28 million contract, and providing he stays healthy, will give them stability at the QB position. Andy Dalton was also signed as the back-up to ensure they have all their bases covered, as the Saints were one of the worst passing teams in 2021, and couldn’t lay the platform for Alvin Kamara to get his job done. The Saints have also some receiving firepower to go with Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith in Jarvis Landry and drafting the speedy Chris Olave. Defensively, the Saints were a top 5 defense against the run and just average against the pass, but in the offseason added Jets safety Marcus Maye to the fold with the Chiefs safety Tyrann Mathieu, so solid improvement has been made.
The Falcons offensively were horrible in the run and passing wasn’t too much better, and have since lost the main arm in Matt Ryan, only to sign Marcus Mariota, who favours his legs more than his arm. Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson will provide some relief but the Falcons will likely struggle to maintain the Saints run defence. On the defensive side of the ball, the Falcons really struggled to stop the run and will be hoping the addition of Lorenzo Carter will help stop the flow. The addition of Casey Hayward at corner, will help them in the deep coverage, but the Saints look like they have too many weapons to contain.
The Saints will win this game and I think the line on offer is decent especially since Winston didn’t play in either game against the Falcons last year, and the Falcons don’t have the passing prowess they had with Matt Ryan. I am expecting the Saints defence to feast in week 1, and the Saints to walk away 1-0 against the division rivals.
Back the New Orleans Saints -5.5 | 1u @ $1.90
Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles
Monday 12th September – 3 am Sydney time
This looks like another interesting match-up. The Eagles are coming off a year where they were the top rushing team in the NFL, but their passing left something to be desired. This is why in the offseason, they added AJ Brown from the Titans to accompany Dallas Goedert and Devonta Smith. Take that into consideration with running backs Miles Sanders and Boston Scott, and you have an offense with fuel to burn with an offensive line that did pretty well at defending the quarterback. Philly were monsters in defence, ranking ninth in rushing yards against and ninth in passing yards against. Accompanying Fletcher Cox and Derek Barnett is Haason Reddick, who was an anchor of the Carolina Panthers’ defence last year, starting in all 16 games whilst recording 11 sacks and forcing 2 fumbles.
The Eagles beat the Lions last year 44-6, and the Lions never really addressed their issues in run defence, which is the cornerstone of the Eagles’ attack. They have slightly improved the deep coverage, but not enough to make an impact in their division, let alone in games like this. Jared Goff is likely to struggle against the Eagles’ defense and unfortunately for the Lions, I am expecting another poor season. The line for Philly is generous, and I expect them to walk away with the win in week 1.
Back the Philadelphia Eagles -4.0 | 2u @ $1.90
Miami Dolphins v New England Patriots
Monday 12th September – 3 am Sydney time
This looks like a fantastic game, for the Miami Dolphins that is. The Dolphins would already know that Patriots in 2021 were top two against the pass but they really struggled against the run, and never really addressed that for this year. Miami signed Chase Edmonds, Sony Michel, and Raheem Mostert whilst signing Tyreek Hill to partner Jaylen Waddle at wideout, Cedrick Wilson in the slot, and of course addressed their offensive line, signing Terron Armstead and Connor Williams in the offensive line to help protect Tua. Trey Flowers was signed on the defensive side of the ball and should give them the extra help needed to try and improve their pass rush defence.
The Dolphins swept the series last year, and the Patriots record in Miami is poor, winning only twice since 2013. This game will be decided through Miami’s attack vs Patriot’s defence, as we see this revitalised attack of Miami try to break the walls of one of the better defences of 2021. Tyreek Hill has been singing the praises of Tua in the offseason, and the pressure is now on the quarterback to stand up and make it happen. Miami at home will be too good for the Patriots and with five of their last seven home wins against the Patriots being decided by 7 points or more, the line looks attractive.
Back the Miami Dolphins -3.0 | 1.5u @ $1.90
New York Jets vs Baltimore Ravens
Monday 12th September – 3 am Sydney time
Baltimore was utterly disappointing last year and injuries had a lot to do with it. On the offensive side of the ball, wasn’t the worst, as they continued to be somewhat dominant in the rush and threw a lot more passes, but they are among the league’s worst for protecting the quarterback (which comes with Jackson’s style) and were among the worst in passing touchdowns. Injuries really hurt them on the defensive side of the pass, more so in the pass, as they conceded the most amount of yards through the air, conceding an average of almost 300 yards a game. Yet with that negative, they were ranked number 1 in defensive yards on the ground and prevented the least amount of rushing first downs.
Despite the Jets making a lot of new signings and moving in the right direction, they lost Zach Wilson in the pre-season to injury and it will take time for the squad to gel, whereas the Ravens get back Dobbins at running back, who will open up the game for Lamar Jackson and the dynamic corner due of Peters and Humphreys, who were out of 2021. If you put a line through last year, the Ravens were one of the better teams in the NFL and consistently featured amongst playoff talk. I expect them to start the year with a bang and for Lamar Jackson to really send the Jets into a spin.
Back the Baltimore Ravens -6.5 | 1u @ $1.90
Summary: Total Units Used: 6u
New Orleans Saints -5.5 | 1u @ $1.90
Philadelphia Eagles -4.0 | 2u @ $1.90
Miami Dolphins -3.0 | 1.5u @ $1.90
Baltimore Ravens -6.5 | 1u @ $1.90
Multi up all matches – 0.5u @ $12.68
*All Prices/lines via Tab as of 06/09/22