Overall P/L: -11.3u
Atlanta Falcons @ Cincinnati Bengals
Monday 24th October – 4 am Sydney time
I love what the Dirty Birds have been doing and despite being 3-3 on the season, they are the only team in the NFL to cover the line in all six games.
Now they have been the outsider in all six games but their biggest losing margin was only six points to the Buccaneers, which was controversial. On the defensive side of the ball, they are horrible against the pass but against the run, they have been holding their own. They have been conceding around 22pts on average a game, and out-scoring that by 2pts a game. They haven’t been that far away in all games and with Mariota at quarterback, you have to also beware of his ground game.
The Bengals have covered the line 3/5 games with one void, but the two they didn’t cover, they were heavy favourites like they are here. In their three wins this season, they barely beat the gritty Jets, beat Miami on the night Tua went down, and scrapped home against the Saints. In their three losses, they have gone down by margins of 3, 3, and 2, so I am sure this is going to be a close game. They have lost a couple of pieces on the defensive side of the ball which is a worry as their defence isn’t the best, especially against the run.
Happy to back the Falcons at the line, in what looks to be a close game.
Back the Atlanta Falcons +6.5 : 2u @ $1.90
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys
Monday 24th October – 4 am Sydney time
We will see Dak Prescott’s return in this game, and it’s the perfect game for his return.
Let’s start with the Cowboys who are sitting at 4-2 which is astonishing considering and came back well enough against the Eagles last weekend. One thing they will have going in their favour for this one is the two-headed backfield in Elliot and Pollard who face a Lions defence that is horrible against the ground game. Mix that with the return of Prescott, and they could be in for a world of hurt on the defensive side of the ball. The Cowboys are a top 5 defence against the pass, and they will cause plenty of havoc for Goff and the Lions’ receivers.
The Lions’ offence looked to be a hot one but then they finally faced a decent and disciplined defence in the Patriots, and they scored nothing. Yes, they played the Eagles but it was week 1 and teams are still getting themselves into gear at that point. They now have to face a Cowboys defence who will be on a mission to re-establish their dominance in front of their home fans.
I think the line is quite acceptable, in a game the Cowboys and Prescott will need to win with authority to say, “We’re back!”.
Back the Dallas Cowboys -6.5 : 2u @ $1.90
New York Jets @ Denver Broncos
Monday 24th October – 7:05 am Sydney time
This is an interesting match up and the Broncos have been announced favourites, probably due to the home-field advantage.
Let’s start with the betting stats. The Jets are currently 4/6 against the line, being the outsiders in all six. Even though it is impressive, they haven’t needed the line four of those games as they won, with their lone losses being against the Bengals and Ravens, both at home. The Broncos are only 2/6 against the line and have struggled in each and every game, and funnily enough, the teams they have played stooped down to the Broncos’ level.
Let’s get real now. The Broncos have been nothing but ordinary and they are the worst-scoring offence in the league with the least amount of points scored in the NFL and a league-worst seven touchdowns in total. What has kept them in their games is the fact they have a top-10 defence. As we saw last week, the Jets are a gritty team; statistically, they are as good a defence as the Broncos. But much like the Broncos, offence has been their down point, but something positive for the Jets is the emergence of Breece Hall in the running-back position.
This looks like another gritty game and we know the Jets are a gritty team. Happy to back them head to head at Mile Hih.
Back the New York Jets H2H : 2u @ $2.00
Summary: Total Units Used: 6.0u
Atlanta Falcons +6.5 : 2u @ $1.90
Dallas Cowboys -6.5 : 2u @ $1.90
New York Jets H2H : 2u @ $2.00
No Multi this week, but if you did it would be $7.22
*All Prices/lines via Tab as of 22/10/22