Overall P/L: -14.1u
New England Patriots @ Cleveland Browns
Monday 17th October – 4 am Sydney time
I really like the Patriots head-to-head here in a match-up between teams who are chalk and cheese.
The Browns have been gritty and careless in their matches so far. They barely beat the Panthers in the opening week before losing the unlosable to the Jets and have since gone down to the Falcons and the Chargers. The Browns have understandably relied heavily on their ground game with Nick Chubb leading the league in rushing yards and the Browns have one of the top rushing attacks in the NFL. Clowney remains inactive due to injury and although Garrett had limited practice, it is expected that he will suit up.
These teams are similar in many ways with their rushing attack leading the offence and defences that can be great or poor from one play to another. The Patriots have conceded under 100 points this year which is a credit to them, and with the likelihood of Mac Jones suiting up this weekend, I give an advantage to the Patriots in a game that can go either way, yet we are getting $2.25 to find out. Hypothetically, the Patriots should perform admirably regardless with Zappe behind centre and it will really be between which defences can shut down the run.
Patriots will be flying high after shutting out the high-powered offence of the Lions last weekend, and I expect them to really take it to the Browns.
Back the New England Patriots H2H : 2u @ $2.25
New York Jets @ Green Bay Packers
Monday 17th October – 4 am Sydney time
You won’t find a grittier team than the New York Jets at the moment and I reckon they are a huge chance against the Packers this weekend.
The Jets are 3-2 to start the year which is brilliant and their two losses to the Ravens and Bengals were by 15 points in fighting displays. Are the Packers in the same league as those two teams? No, they are not. Hence why the margin here is silly. The Jets have covered the line 3 times this year, beating the margin by 15.5 points in total, and they have been the underdogs in every game. Zach Wilson went back under centre two games ago and last weekend they embarrassed Miami who many have heading to the playoffs this year. They haven’t scored a lot of points but they haven’t let a lot in either, and much like the Packers, their defence is their strong point. Considering the Packers are yet to score 100 points this season, if the Jets can limit Aaron Rodgers, they will go a long way to winning this game.
The Packers are the worst 3-2 team I have seen this year. They were embarrassed by the Vikings, beat the Bears (nothing to write home about), barely handled the injury-plagued Bucs, barely handed the Patriots without a key QB, and got beat by the Giants. Add their three wins today, they have only won by an average of seven points, 17 points were against the Bears alone. They are struggling on the ground and Rodgers isn’t making the key throws he used to.
It’s a big and silly margin, not saying the Jets will win because they have their own issues but 7.5 points is a big spread.
Back the New York Jets +7.5 : 2u @ $1.90
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Monday 17th October – 11:20 am Sydney time
Another massive line for a rivalry game between two teams who hate each other and are playing good football.
The Cowboys have had the wood over the Eagles in their recent encounters, winning their last three against the birds by an average of 21 points, that’s right 21 points. Since their opening round defeat to the Bucs, the Cowboys have gone 4-0 though two of those games were only against the Giants and Commanders, they had good wins over the Bengals and Rams, winning at an average of nine points. They have also covered the line in 4/5 games, beating the margin by 24.5 points.
Both defences have been terrific against the pass and okay against the rush, but its the Eagles offence that has been great at posting up tremendous numbers, but despite this, aren’t winning their games by big margins, winning by an average of nine points and missing the line on two occasions. Dallas is ranked third overall in the NFL on points against and is struggling to score points but with the chance of Prescott suiting up on Sunday, this will change the complexion of the game in the favour of Dallas.
Both teams are playing well and defence is going to be a major talking point in this game, but for a rivalry so big and the chances of Prescott making his return, I want to play Dallas with the start despite being away from home.
Back the Dallas Cowboys +6.5 : 1.5u @ $1.85
Summary: Total Units Used: 5.5u
New England Patriots H2H : 2u @ $2.25
New York Jets +7.5 : 2u @ $1.90
Dallas Cowboys +6.5 : 1.5u @ $1.85
No Multi this week, but if you did it would be $7.90
*All Prices/lines via Tab as of 16/10/22