Overall P/L: -7.1u
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Monday 10th October – 4 am Sydney time
This is a mismatch if I have ever seen one though these divisional games can throw up some weird results.
The Jaguars come into this game with one of the better defences in the league, who have faced Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Justin Herbert, and Jalon Hurts and held their own throughout. They are tied in a league-high seven interceptions and rank in the top ten for defence against the run, and against the pass, they are better than average. In their four games this season, they have covered the line just twice but their final margins vs closing line is a whopping +50pts, which shows they win big and loss by little. They now face the Texans who are yet to win a game this season after facing the Colts, Broncos, Bears and Chargers.
Using the Chargers as a line, the Texans lost by 10pts last weekend whilst the week prior, the Jags beat the Chargers by 28 points, which is a difference of 38 points which is massive. The Jags are the real deal and that was shown by the fight they put on against the Eagles last weekend.
Happy to take the Jags to cover the line against David Mills and the Texans.
Back the Jacksonville Jaguars -7.0 : 2u @ $1.90
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Monday 10th October – 4 am Sydney time
This is a big game for both these sides and I would feel a lot more comfortable with my bet if they got to 2.5, but I still think they can cover this line.
I thought Miami was well in the game before Tua went down and now with not only half a game with Bridgewater behind centre, they get a full week of practice with him and get the start the game with him. It is much easier to start the game with the replacement QB than have him come in mid-game.
Both these teams like to sling the ball this year instead of running so it’s going to come down to the pass defence where the Dolphins have struggled a touch but have played the likes of Burrow, Allen, and Jackson whereas the Jets defence who are statistically well in, faced Brissett and Trubisky/Pickett, which would have boosted them nicely. They were no hope against the Ravens and Bengals and scrapped in some magic against the Browns and barely beat the Steelers.
The Dolphins may have lost Tua, but Bridgewater is a very good replacement and if they can sharpen up defensively here, they should have too much firepower for the Jets, but as I have already mentioned, divisional games are always tough contests. Happy to side with the Dolphins who lead the AFC in Final Margin vs Closing Line with 3/4 lines covered and a margin of +19.
Back the Miami Dolphins -3.5 : 1u @ $1.90
Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals
Monday 10th October – 7:25 am Sydney time
Another mismatch? I think so.
Both these teams are statistically good against the run, but let’s dive a little deeper. The Cardinals have faced the Chiefs, Raiders, Rams, and Panthers who have struggled offensively in the run game regardless of who they have faced, and the Cards faced one QB similar to Hurts in Mahomes and they were destroyed. The Eagles struggled in week 1 against the two-headed monster in the backfield that the Lions have produced, but most teams would, but since have handled their assignments well against the Vikings, Commanders and Jaguars.
The problem the Cardinals have this week is Hurts can hurt you through the air and with his legs, but he has a top 5 back next to him in Miles Sanders, who can demolish you at any time. The Cardinals allow 7.4 yards against the pass compared to the Eagles 4.8 yards, which is a league leader in terms of yards against the pass. Despite stopping the run well enough, the Cardinals only have four sacks to their name as a defence, which is 12 less than the Eagles with 16.
Five points seems a gimme and I expect the Eagles to win well.
Back the Phildelphia Eagles -5.0 : 2u @ $1.90
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
Tuesday 11th October – 11:15 am Sydney time
The Raiders saluted for their first win last weekend in what could be portrayed as the game they should have won by panels but tried to lose.
They won in the end, but they just couldn’t put the game to bed against the lowly Broncos who continued to struggle in Thursday Night Football. The Raiders continue to be a team that struggles and are a long way from what people predicted prior to the season beginning. They lost to the Chargers, Cardinals, and Titans before their win last weekend and have been terrible against the pass both rushing the passer and in total yards conceded. They now have to face a Chiefs offence that is tied with a league-high of 11 offensive passing touchdowns, average 7.5 yards per throw, only allowed 5 sacks and only thrown 2 interceptions.
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs have been ruthless against the run which won’t give Josh Jacobs much hope leading into this one and puts the pressure back on Derek Carr and his receivers who have just six touchdowns this season. They now have to also travel to Arrowhead, which is one of the worst places for them to be on Monday Night Football.
Kansas City are a beast and the Raiders are quite the opposite. This could get messy if the Raiders don’t start producing.
Back the Kansas City Chiefs -7.0 : 2u @ $1.90
Summary: Total Units Used: 7.0u
Jacksonville Jaguars -7.0 : 2u @ $1.90
Miami Dolphins -3.5 : 1u @ $1.90
Phildelphia Eagles -5.0 : 2u @ $1.90
Kansas City Chiefs -7.0 : 2u @ $1.90
No Multi this week, but if you did it would be $13.03
*All Prices/lines via Tab as of 08/10/22