Overall P/L: -6.9u
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions
Monday 3rd October – 4 am Sydney time
This game has been flipped upside down a touch with the Lions ruling out D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St.Brown who have been beasts in this Lions offence, but I don’t think enough credit has been given to the supporting cast in Joshua Reynolds and Jamall Williams, who led the team in both rushing and receiving in their loss to the Vikings. As a whole, the Lions are ranked fifth in offence led by Jared Goff, and on the defensive side of the ball, they are ranked third.
They will be facing a Seahawks outfit who narrowly beat the Broncos, lost to an ordinary 49ers, and lost to the Falcons. Aside from passing, they are amongst the worst in total offence, defence and rushing. Geno Smith just hasn’t got the offence to click despite looking very good in the opening week.
The Seahawks have only covered the line once and that was with a 6.5pt start whereas the Lions have covered all three of their games despite losing twice (to the Eagles and Vikings) but they took them right until the final whistle. The Lions have lost some weapons but the Seahawks are very plain.
Back the Detroit Lions -3.5 : 1u @ $1.90
Chicago Bears @ New York Giants
Monday 3rd October – 4 am Sydney time
This game has two teams that look similar statistically but to me, are chalk and cheese.
Chicago showed glimpse of a new team in week 1 when they beat the 49ers in the wet, but failed to close any gap on their main rivals in the Packers and last week, they barely handled the Texans. They have 2-1 as their record which gives us a false impression of how they are actually going. They are the worst offence in the NFL and the worst on the ground though they are ranked second overall in rushing and their defence is in the top 10. Justin Fields just doesn’t give me the impression he is ready to step up, especially away from home.
The Giants only went down by seven points to the Cowboys last week and will be a touch disappointed that they aren’t 3-0. They handled the Titans and Panthers nicely before last weekend despite them ranking amongst the worst teams passing the ball. But much like their counterparts here, their rushing game is top notch and the Giants defence is fourth overall.
With the Bears being away from home and showing a false 2-1, I am happy to lean with the Giants in front of their home fans.
Back the New York Giants -3.0 : 1u @ $1.95
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders
Monday 3rd October – 7:25 am Sydney time
You want to talk about deceiving records, this game highlights it.
Denver has been putrid. They were beaten by the Seahawks in week 1, won when struggling against the Texans, and then played one of the worst-looking games against the 49ers in what was almost unwatchable (for both teams). Despite winning twice, they have barely covered the line (1/3) and haven’t looked likely at all. Defence has been what has kept them in their games, but they are yet to face a quarterback of Derek Carr’s caliber.
The Raiders are ranked 29th in defence but in their defence (see what I did there), they faced the Chargers in Week 1, had a shootout with the Cards, and let the Titans score too much in the second quarter before buckling down and making it close. One thing they can do is air the ball out and we know Josh Jacobs can be dangerous when given the time. They have failed to cover the line in three games, two of which they started favourites but they weren’t against a team as bad at offence this year like the Broncos.
This is a big rivalry game and a game the Raiders can gain some confidence on both sides of the ball.
Back the Las Vegas Raiders -2.5 : 1.5u @ $1.90
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Tuesday 4th October – 11:15 am Sydney time
Another rivalry game that is similar to the last, except the 49ers have a record that is deceiving and stats that are over-inflated.
The 49ers were bad against the Bears and pulled out gross wins against the Seahawks and Broncos, and all three teams are not the quality of the Rams. They only covered the line once (against the Seahawks) and they have been favourite in all three games. I think a lot are living in last year with the 49ers and I will change my tune if they win this.
The Rams have some poor stats on both sides of the ball, which is quite disappointing for the defending champs, but they have pulled out two wins with their only loss being to the Bills. After facing Allen and the Bills in week 1, they faced a resurgent Falcons who are very underestimated and they really put together a better performance against the Cardinals away from home.
I love the Rams H2H here and I am scratching my head as to why they are outsiders. I know they haven’t been flash, but the 49ers have been worse.
Back the Los Angeles Rams H2H : 1.5u @ $2.05
Summary: Total Units Used: 5.0u
Detroit Lions -3.5 : 1u @ $1.90
New York Giants -3.0 : 1u @ $1.95
Las Vegas Raiders -2.5 : 1.5u @ $1.90
Los Angeles Rams H2H : 1.5u @ $2.05
No Multi this week, but if you did it would be $14.43
*All Prices/lines via Tab as of 01/10/22