Last Week: -4.0u
Overall P/L: -5.2u
Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts
Monday 26th September – 3 am Sydney time
The bookies are keeping this game safe from a Colts point of view, hoping they aren’t as bad as their 0-2 record suggests, but they are about to play Mahomes and the Chiefs.
The Chiefs were utterly dominant in Week 1 against the Cardinals and were a mere 1 point away from covering the line in back-to-back weeks when they won by 3 points against their divisional rival Chargers. From a betting perspective, had the Chiefs covered the line last week, it would have put them up with the Bills and Dolphins in terms of profitable teams against the line. Offensively, the Chiefs are ranked third offensively for points scored, 1 point behind the Bills and 14 behind the Browns (who have already played), and this could spell trouble for a Colts team who are okay defensively but on the offensive side of the ball are struggling for points.
The Colts are not only the worst team in the AFC for their final margin vs the closing line, but they are the worst in the NFL. They have drawn with the Texans and spanked by the Jaguars, both of which are nowhere near the talent of the Chiefs. This looks like a massive mismatch and unless the Colts figure this out, they will be 0-3 at the end of this game.
Back the Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 : 2u @ $1.90
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
Monday 26th September – 3am Sydney time
This is another game where I think the bookies are just treading carefully because it’s the Patriots.
New England was trounced by the Dolphins in Week 1 and barely beat a Steelers team who struggles on the offensive side of the ball. Only one team has scored fewer points than them after two weeks and that’s the Colts, with the Pats tied second last for points scored with the Seahawks. They have been holding themselves defensively, though this is mainly due to their Steelers match-up as we saw how they were against a real offence like Miami. They face a real offence here in the Ravens who handled the Jets nicely and had an offensive shootout with the Dolphins last week.
The Ravens are a break-even team so far this year as they were fancied to cover the line last week but Miami put that to bed. Although this is a Patriots home game, they are going to need something special to handle this Ravens offence that gets Dobbins back for the first time.
Back the Baltimore Ravens -2.5 : 1u @ $1.85
Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks
Monday 26th September – 6:25 am Sydney time
I actually really like this match-up despite the Falcons being 0-2 to start the season.
They played well against the Saints before giving the Rams a scare last week, but they are playing better than their 0-2 record suggests. From a line perspective, they are the second best in the NFC for their final margin vs closing line, helped a bit by their +5.5 and +10 pt starts. But those points were disrespectful in the end as the Falcons only went down by 1pt and 4pts respectively, against much better teams. This will truly be a battle of the offences as both defences are ordinary, and Atlanta can score points. They are ranked third in the NFC for points scored right behind the Eagles and Commanders which is immaculate considering they played the Saints and Rams.
The Seahawks get the home-field advantage but they have been ordinary against ordinary teams. Barely winning in Week 1 against the Broncos before getting trounced by the 49ers last weekend away from home. They are horrible on the offensive side of the ball and are really struggling. They are one of the worst teams in the league and they are going to need something big here against the Dirty Birds.
Back the Atlanta Falcons H2H : 1u @ $1.95
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday 26th September – 6:25 am Sydney time
This is a mismatch and I don’t care what anyone says.
The Bucs have covered the line in both of their matches thus far handling the Saints by 10 points in Week 2 and spanking the Cowboys by 16 points in the opening week. They are the best in the NFC for final margins vs the closing line and will now face an offence as poor as them in hot conditions in Tampa Bay, which favours the home team majorly. One thing the Bucs have that the Packers don’t is a decent defence. Tampa Bay is the best defence for points scored against them in the entire league, that’s right, even better than the Bills.
The Packers on the other hand struggled against Jefferson and Kirk Cousins in Week 1 before handling the lowly Bears in Week 2 and despite this, are actually the third worst team in the NFC for final margin vs closing line, even below the ordinary Panthers. I just can’t take the Packers down in Tampa Bay with the possible conditions at hand.
Remember the old term “Defence wins championships”, well that’s what’s going to come to the fore in this one.
Back the Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 : 1.5u @ $1.95
Summary: Total Units Used: 5.5u
Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 : 2u @ $1.90
Baltimore Ravens -2.5 : 1u @ $1.85
Atlanta Falcons H2H : 1u @ $1.95
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 : 1.5u @ $1.95
No Multi this week, but if you did it would be $13.02
*All Prices/lines via Tab as of 25/09/22