Richmond v Western Bulldogs
Friday 30/4/2021
If the Tigers weren’t ripe for the picking on form after a shaky 3-3 start, then they sure are now without Dustin Martin, Kane Lambert and Dylan Grimes also in doubt. The Dogs actually have a good record over the Tigers in recent years, winning three of the last five and going down by three points in one of those two losses. And to make that stat look even more appealing is that the Bulldogs are airborne with a 6-0 start to the season. In contrast, the Tigers’ successful game style of recent years has been dismantled by opposition sides. The Bulldogs’ speed should be able to inflict a similar fate. While the Dogs are without key players Josh Dunkley and Tim English, they should still have enough depth to run over the Tigers.
Suggested bet – 1.5u Bulldogs -10.5 at $1.90
Collingwood v Gold Coast Suns
Saturday 1/5/2021
The Pies are under immense scrutiny after a poor start to the season with one win so far this season. While the Suns may well be working out how to gel despite a crippling injury toll. They come off a solid 40-point win over the Swans at home last Saturday and have been competitive in most games this season. If they continue last weekend’s form they will give this a real shake and we are getting nice odds.
Suggested bet – 1u Suns win at $2.65
Adelaide v Greater Western Sydney Giants
Saturday 1/5/2021
This shapes as a fascinating clash with the Giants coming off three weeks of more promising footy after a dismal start to the season. They went with the high-flying Bulldogs for most of last weekend’s clash before eventually going down by 39 points. Prior to that they registered wins over Sydney and Collingwood. The Crows come off two tight losses and will be stinging from the narrow loss to the Hawks last week. The Crows are playing an exciting brand of footy and showed what it can produce during the second quarter dominance of the Hawks. The Crows have won three of the past four against the Giants at Adelaide Oval and should be able to build on that record here.
Suggested bet – 2u Adelaide win at $1.90
St Kilda v Hawthorn
Saturday 1/5/2021
There’s certainly cause for concern around the Saints as they come into this off a 54-point loss to Port last week and an 86-point loss to the Tigers the week before. It raises serious questions around their validity as a genuine finals contender. The Hawks tasted victory last week with a stoic come-from-behind performance to beat the Crows, while before that they were competitive in losses to Fremantle and Geelong. They were unable to go with tall-conquering Demons last week but have shown they aren’t far off pushing for finals with ter young side. The last three clashes between these two sides have been decided by only a kick or two, and I believe this will be a repeat. At the odds and current form, I must side with Hawthorn.
Suggested bet – 1u win Hawthorn at $2.30
Sydney v Geelong
Saturday 1/5/2021
The bubble has just about burst on the early hype around the Swans after two losses. Most concerning was last week’s loss to the Suns to the tune of 40 points. There’s more injury worries for the Swans with Sam Reid now ruled out. It leaves a big hole in a Swans defence that must contain Hawkins and Cameron. Geelong smacked West Coast last week but have to hit the road to Sydney in a bid to make it three wins on the trot. The Cats have a good record at the SCG and expect they will be too strong for the Swans.
Suggested bet – 2.5u Geelong at $1.48
Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide
Saturday 1/5/2021
Lachie Neale is on the sidelines and he’s also joined by Darcy Gardiner – leaving big gaps in a Brisbane side taking on a serious flag contender. Despite the Lions winning their past two, it was only against Essendon and Carlton, so I’m still unconvinced on how well they are travelling. Neale is near-impossible to replace and they will miss his toughness around the contests. Brisbane have beaten the Power in their past two clashes at the Gabba, but the Power will be looking to further stamp their premiership credentials and entrench their spot in the top four against an under-strength Lions.
Suggested bet -1.5u Port win at $1.90
North Melbourne v Melbourne
Sunday 2/5/2021
A severe mismatch here with the undefeated Demons taking on the winless Kangaroos. The only possible bet in this would be to take the Demons to cover the line, but we did see Geelong not even manage to get close to covering a similarly huge line when they faced the Kangaroos recently. Aaron Hall is a welcome addition to the Kangaroos and may add some resistance.
No suggested bet
Essendon v Carlton
Sunday 2/5/2021
Two fierce rivals clash here who will likely deliver an entertaining clash despite their lowly ladder positions. While I really have little confidence in what either side will bring, I am surprised the Bombers are outsiders. They have beaten the Gold Coast and Freo, while the Bombers have beaten Collingwood and St Kilda. Still, the form of both sides is almost impossible to line up, and while I would consider a small bet on the Bombers at the price, I simply have very little clye on which Bombers side will show up.
No suggested bet
West Coast Eagles v Fremantle
Sunday 2/5/2021
The Western Derby is always one of the most-anticipated clashes on the fixture and this looms as an intriguing contest. Freo have lost their past five derbies but have delivered some surprise performances already in season 2021, despite a length injury list. They’ve won five of their past six and come off three straight wins. In contrast, the Eagles were belted by Geelong last week and have lost three of their past five. Freo are ready to finally break their Derby hoodoo and we are getting a nice price.
Suggested bet – 1u Fremantle win at $2.20