Greater Western Sydney v Western Bulldogs
The Bulldogs streaked to 5-0 for the first time since 1946 by thrashing Gold Coast at Marvel Stadium last weekend. They did the hard work early with the first 11 goals of the match to eventually ease down and win by 62 points. They now take on the Giants at Manuka, with the Giants fresh off upsetting the flying Swans last weekend. The Dogs appear to have too much firepower across the ground and should be too classy for the Giants.
Suggested bet – 1u -20.5 Bulldogs at $1.90
Geelong v West Coast
It must be said the Cats were very average last week as they got past the lowly Kangaroos last weekend. Now they again lose the class of Patrick Dangerfield and face an Eagles outfit looking to prove they can win outside Perth. Jeremy Cameron is expected to debut for the Cats which will cause headaches for the Eagles defence. West Coast started slowly against the Pies last week but really hit their straps as the match progressed. I’m banking on them using that as momentum as they look to pick off the Cats.
Suggested bet – 1u West Coast +11.5 at $1.85
Gold Coast v Sydney
Sydney has won each of its last five matches against Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium and come off a shock loss to cross-town rivals GWS last week. If they can’t dispose of the Suns there will be genuine questions about if they are serious finals players. Although the Swans are without Dane Rampe, Isaac Heeney, Lance Franklin and Tom Hickey, the Suns are also decimated by injury and shouldn’t have the personnel to upset the Swans despite home advantage.
Suggested bet – 1.5u Swans -6.5 at $1.85
Carlton v Brisbane
Two sides under the microscope as they look to kickstart their season. After five rounds both have two wins and three losses in 2021. Carlton weren’t up to Port last week, while Brisbane revelled in wet conditions to smash Essendon. Lachie Neale was back to his best for the Lions with 38 disposals, eight clearances and two goals, while Joe Daniher had his best game for Brisbane. Neale was a big factor in the last time these two sides met as Brisbane scored a close win. Brisbane should win this, but Carlton are becoming a hard side to tip against and were good enough last week against a better opponent in Port.
No suggested bet
Melbourne v Richmond
Match of the round as Melbourne look to remain unbeaten to start the season. The Demons’ 104-54 victory over Hawthorn last week was a little flattering as they were made to work for the victory, leading by only four points early in the final term. Max Gawn is in sublime form for the Dees and will be a key factor here around the ground. Richmond was also a sizeable winner in Round 5, defeating St Kilda 134-48 at Marvel Stadium largely thanks to the displays from Dustin Martin and Jack Riewoldt, showing they were close to finding their best stuff. The last time these two sides met, the Tigers triumphed 79-52 – making it five straight victories over the Demons.
No suggested bet
Fremantle v North Melbourne
Fremantle are a difficult side to assess in 2021 but have shown real glimpses of being up to finals-bound opposition. They were resolute in last weekend’s away win over Adelaide, with David Mundy at his devastating best. The Kangaroos were well beaten by a lacklustre Geelong side last week and it’s hard to see them getting near the Dockers in Perth. In the last two matches against Fremantle, the Roos have lost by 60+ points and it’s likely we’ll see a repeat here.
Suggested bet – 1.5u Fremantle -43.5 at $1.90
Hawthorn v Adelaide
A long-awaited return of AFL in Tasmania at a venue the Hawks have won 34 of their last 39 matches. In 2019 they were undefeated in Tassie, which included a dominant display to beat Adelaide. Hawthorn are now amidst a four game losing streak but they have been competitive against some top sides. Adelaide’s early season run was halted by Freo last week and they look to be missing Rory Sloane’s grunt in the middle. He won’t return for a few weeks yet. This should be a tight game as the market suggests but happy to have something on Adelaide as outsiders – I think they are a better side of the two this year.
Suggested bet – 1u Adelaide win at $2.36
Collingwood v Essendon
Tricky clash with both owning a 1-4 record in 2021. This traditional ANZAC Day fixture comes with both sides under pressure to show signs of life this season. The Dons have to recover from the soggy conditions in their loss to Brisbane, while the Pies return from a loss to West Coast in Perth. This is a game which could go either way so happy to watch these two battle it out on the big stage.
No suggested bet
Port Adelaide v St Kilda
A huge test for the Saints as they look to recover and get their season back on track after a demolition at the hands of Richmond last week. The positive is they return to Adelaide Oval where they plucked a decisive upset victory in 2020. However, Port will be out to ensure there’s no repeat in season 2021. They look to be going as well as ever and are firming as genuine flag contenders. They should account for the Saints easily here.
Suggested bet – 1.5u Port -27.5 at $1.90