Western Bulldogs v Melbourne Demons
A massive top-of-the-table contest and a chance for these two sides to cement their premiership credentials. Both sides have lost only once this season, with the Demons suffering a shock loss to the Crows last week and the Dogs faltering to the reigning premiers five Friday nights ago. These two sides come into this off hugely contrasting performances last week, with the Dogs free-wheeling in their 111-point spanking of the Saints. For the Dogs, ruckman Tim English is a big inclusion, but that’s tempered by boom recruit Adam Treloar being out with an ankle injury. He’s been in top-notch form and they’ll miss his run and drive through the midfield and into attack. The most recent time these two sides met at Marvel it was the Dogs on top, but prior to that the Dees were big winners. While I think the Dogs are genuine winning hopes here, I must say I’m surprised they are so short. For that reason I’ll have something small on the Dees at the price.
Suggested bet – 0.5u Melbourne win at $2.35
Collingwood Magpies v Geelong Cats
Geelong seems to be getting closer to their best form and have won their past nine out of 10 matches in Victoria. They should have no trouble taking care of the Pies. However, it is worth considering that if you overlook the Cats 68-point win last time these two sides met, their record against the Pies is hardly convincing. It makes this game a little tricky to assess, especially given the way these two sides performances last weekend. The Pies tested the Power while the Cats got the job done but were nowhere near their best in beating the Suns.
No suggested bet
Brisbane Lions v Greater Western Sydney Giants
The Lions are quickly becoming the form team of the competition with six straight wins, including an impressive effort in beating the Tigers last week. However, the Giants are in some solid form themselves with five wins from their past seven. Their only losses in that period have been to the Tigers and Bulldogs. The Giants also have a great record at the Gabba, winning their past two at this venue. This time however they are undermanned, but it’s nothing new for the Giants this season. I’m confident they can continue being competitive and the line seems excessive. If they weren’t without Toby Greene I’d even give them a chance of an upset win, but let’s stick with the head start.
Suggested bet – 1.5u Giants +29.5 at $1.90
St Kilda Saints v North Melbourne Roos
The Saints were demolished by the Bulldogs last week and now face one of the competition minnows for their opportunity to respond. If they don’t hit back (and hard) then it’s likely curtains for their finals’ aspirations. After getting their first win of the season a fortnight ago the Roos crashed back to earth going down to the Bombers. At their best, the Saints are a much better side than the Bombers – and given the media blowtorch being on St Kilda all week, I’d be shocked if they didn’t come out swinging here.
Suggested bet – 2u St Kilda -26.5 at $1.90
West Coast Eagles v Essendon Bombers
The Eagles will enjoy being back at their fortress home ground and should have no trouble accounting for the Bombers. They’ve won 13 of their past 14 at Optus Stadium and haven’t looked like getting beaten at home this year. The past three clashes between these two sides at this venue have resulted in big wins to the Eagles and it should be no different here. Elliott Yeo is also a handy inclusion for the Eagles. The line looks an easy one for the Eagles to cover.
Suggested bet – 3u West Coast -22.5 at $1.90
Gold Coast Suns v Hawthorn Hawks
At the time of writing, we’re not sure where this game will be played, with the scheduled venue of Darwin closed off due to COVID restrictions. The market looks to have this one about right, especially with Kyle Hartigan (suspension) and Jaeger O’Meara (concussion) out for the Hawks. This one can go through to the keeper given we don’t know where it’ll be played.
No suggested bet
Richmond Tigers v Adelaide Crows
I think it’s a big positive the Crows avoid playing the Tigers at the MCG, instead finding a neutral venue in Sydney given COVID restrictions. The Crows will have a swagger after knocking off the previously unbeaten Dees, while the Tigers are not exactly in vintage form and are still missing some key midfielders. They do get some big names back with Cotchin, Bolton and Prestia but they also lose Pickett and Lynch. A really hard game to assess, and if their wasn’t a few questions marks lingering about the Tigers, then the 21.5 line looks appealing. And if the Crows hadn’t lost five straight before upsetting the Dees last week, then they’d look worth a bet.
No suggested bet
Sydney Swans v Carlton Blues
Sydney return home from Perth where they endured a two-point loss to the Dockers. They’ll be looking to return to the winners’ circle as their hot early season form continues to stall and will enjoy being back at the SCG where they’ve lost only once this year. They also have a brilliant record at this venue against Carlton, winning 13 of the past 15 clashes. Despite this, the past two clashes have been split (and decided by only five and seven points), which includes the Blues taking the points once here at the SCG. The Blues have promised plenty this season but their finals hopes are teetering on the edge with a 4-6 record. If they go 4-7 with a loss here to the Swans, their top eight hopes will be all but dashed. I know the Swans overall record is very good against the Blues, but the most recent clashes mean this should be much closer than the market suggests. Must have something on the Blues as outsiders.
Suggested bet – 1u Carlton at $2.75
Port Adelaide Power v Fremantle Dockers
After getting out of jail last week to narrowly defeat Collingwood, it’s hard to back the Power until they show some serious signs of improvement. They might be 7-3 and sitting 5th on the ladder, but it’s hard to imagine they’ll be in the premiership mix on their current form. However, they face a Fremantle side which has won only once away from Perth this season. They’ve also been beaten by Port seven of the past eight clashes at Adelaide Oval. While there’s plenty in the past results to say Port should be way too good, the Dockers are an underrated commodity in season 2021 and could press a Power side which is not playing anywhere near its best.
Suggested bet – 0.5u Fremantle +25.5 at $1.90