VRC Crown Oaks – 2021

Track: Soft Weather: Fine

Eleven fillies have accepted for the $1,000,000 Crown Oaks.  The weather bureau is forecasting up to 25mm on Wednesday and rain again early Thursday morning so we are predicting the track to be in the soft range.  Four of these are on the quick five day back up after running in the Wakeful Stakes here on Saturday.  This is significant from a historical profiling point of view as the last three winners of this race had their last start in the Wakeful Stakes.  Four others ran in the Group 2 Ethereal Stakes on Caulfield Cup day.

The current favourite in the betting is Elusive Express.  She won her only start at Flemington over 1600m and was second in the Group 1 Thousand Guineas at her last start.  Next in the betting is Willowy.  She was impressive winning the Wakeful Stakes and gets Damian Oliver in the saddle who is coming off a dual Group 1 winning day on Saturday.

Daisies ran well in the Wakeful and is perfectly drawn in barrier six for James McDonald.  Biscayne Bay has been building nicely and gets blinkers on for the first time for the race she has been targeted at.  Glint Of Hope is still a maiden but she won’t be the first horse in recent memory too break her maiden status in a Group 1.  Douceur is two from two on heavy ground.  Morrissette and Tiz My Bay have been getting back and running home well, while Blackcomb had some excuses for a below par run in the Moonee Valley Vase.  The remaining runners are longer than $20-1.

1. Elusive Express

Daughter of Jakkalberry who has finished in the top three in all five of her starts to date.  Has two wins on soft ground and was a narrow second at her only try on heavy ground.  Is drawn well and keeps McNeil who is riding well.  One of the chances.

2. Willowy

Godolphin filly who lengthened impressively to win the Wakeful on Saturday.  Was dominant winning a maiden at Newcastle prior. Damian Oliver climbs aboard here.  Has placed on heavy ground and all things being equal looks really hard to beat in this.

3. Daisies

Brings strong form into this winning the Ethereal over 2000m at Caulfield, then was second behind Willowy in the Wakeful on Saturday.  The last four winners of this race have run either top two in the Ethereal or Wakeful.  She has done both!

4. Biscayne Bay

Daughter of Sebring trained by the all conquering Maher & Eustace camp.  She gets here fourth up after hitting the line very nicely in the Ethereal under hands and heels.  The best part of her race was her last 100m.  Blinkers go on and gets Hugh Bowman.  Strong each way claims.

5. Gonnadancealot

Was an 1800m winner here in July against much easier company.  Beaten a long way in her two runs since returning from a spell.  Unlikely here.

6. Douceur

Interesting runner.  Began here career with three runs in the middle of winter, then had a two month break.  Has had four runs since her return and has been running well with out winning.  Ran a career peak in the Wakeful on Saturday when third beaten less 1.25 lengths.  Had the right run there so hard to see her turning the tables on Daisies and Willowy but is in the mix for multiples.

7. Glint Of Hope

One of the better maidens going around.  Was third in the Edward Manifold and second in the Ethereal.  Gets Nash Rawiller on which is a big plus.  Barrier one may work against her if they are getting away from the fence with the predicted rain.

8. Tiz My Bay

Has been getting back and hitting the line well.  Beaten less than three lengths behind Willowy on Saturday.  Has a very good fitness base for this.  Consider for trifecta’s and first fours.

9. Blackcomb

Danny O’Brien trained filly.  Was very unlucky in the Hill Smith Stakes in Adelaide two starts ago, then got into a bumping dual at the 600m when tackling the boys at Moonee Valley and weakened out.   Wouldn’t shock to see her bounce back.

10. Fabiola

Broke her maiden at Benalla last start.  Outclassed here.

11. Morrissette

Another who is still a maiden.  She has been getting back and running on okay in her races.  Rough place chance.

The following are the top 4 selections for this years race.

Jo’s Tips	Lewis’ Tips
2. Willowy	2. Willowy
1. Elusive Express	4. Biscayne Bay
3. Daisies	3. Daisies
6. Douceur	8. Tiz My Bay

Group 1 Melbourne Cup 2021 (Flemington 3200m)