A very tough nine race program at Eagle Farm with two Listed races as the winter carnival draws closer. We know what we get with this surface and it’s already rated a Good 4, which will remain until raceday. Given the evenness of this program, we only have two bets as I couldn’t find a ‘next best’. Let’s hope this pair can salute at some nice odds.
Race 5 – #5 Be Water My Friend
Only a small field for the feature race of the day as the 3yos line up in the Daybreak Lover. Gotta Kiss and Apache Chase share favouritism, but I’m looking for a bit of value around the $7 mark (we may even get better closer to the jump) with Be Water My Friend. This guy is a talented son of Headwater and brings a different formline than the two faves and Mass Destruction. This is his second try at Eagle Farm after running third in the Dalrello here last year. On that occasion, he was three wide and battled on bravely to be beaten a little over half a length by the handy Smart ‘n’ Sexy. I’ll take that as he handles this Eagle Farm surface. His two runs this time in have been excellent behind the airborne Racecourse Road and Toorooloo. This is his first try beyond 1200m but he gives the impression of a horse who will relish the 1400m. He will get back, but in the small field, he won’t be far away and can gun them down late. We get a great price here due to the unfashionable trainer/jockey combo.
Race 6 – #1 All Stars
I’m breaking a rule here by backing horses which aren’t tested at this unique Eagle Farm surface. All Stars is yet to race at this track, but in his favour is that he’s a horse who enjoys firm ground. His two runs this time in have been outstanding, beating Centrefire first-up (who has since won) and then not having much luck from a wide draw last start behind the talented Weona Smartone. This well-bred, but lightly-raced 5yo might just be starting to put it all together – and connections could be rewarded for their patience. From gate five, he gets a lovely run in behind the speed and I think 1200m is his pet journey. He is awfully handicapped at set weights, but I’m banking on him going to another level this prep. Great value in a very even event.