FINALS – WEEK 1 PREVIEW

Brisbane Lions v Richmond Tigers

Thursday 1/9/22 @ The Gabba

Last 5 Encounters |  Brisbane 2  |  Richmond 3

Brisbane hosts Richmond in the first of the elimination finals on Thursday night.

After a strong start to the season the Lions dropped five of their last eleven in the run home to finish outside the top four.

The Tigers let some games slip through out the middle of their season however have rallied strongly late in the year winning their last four to secure a top eight spot.  Their forward line has been exceptional in recent times and the return of triple Norm Smith Medallist Dustin Martin is only going to add to it.

The Lions were badly beaten by the Demons in Round 23 and have a very poor finals record under Chris Fagan.  Furthermore their defence has been shaky – especially in recent times – and the loss of key defender Marcus Adams only adds to this.  They also lose Cam Rayner through suspension – a key cog in their offence.  They do have the home ground advantage however the Tigers know this ground well, having won the 2020 Grand Final on it.

For me everything points to Richmond.

Suggested Bet – Richmond @ $1.68 (Multi)

Melbourne Demons v Sydney Swans

Friday 2/9/22 @ MCG

Last 5 Encounters |  Melbourne 2  |  Sydney 3

This looks a mouth watering contest on paper.  The Demons were dominant over the Lions in round 23 and maybe timing their run to perfection.  The young Swans have won their last seven and have no reason to be anything other than confident heading into this one having beaten the reigning premiers at this venue earlier in the year.

Contestant footy is where this game might be won or lost.  It’s the Demons one wood with Max Gawn and Luke Jackson giving the likes of Oliver, Petracca and Viney silver service at clearance.  The Swans are weaker in this area but are a far superior transition team to the Demons.  They will need big efforts players like Parker and Mills to match the Demons in the contest if they are to progress through to a prelim final.

Leaning Melbourne but think the market has this about right.  Going to sit back and cheer our Melbourne Premiership bet placed earlier in the year.

Suggested Bet – No bet

Geelong Cats v Collingwood Magpies

Saturday 3/9/22 @ MCG

Last 5 Encounters |  Geelong 3  |  Collingwood 2

The two in form sides of the competition meet on Saturday afternoon at the mighty MCG and this one has already been sold out.

Collingwood has been on an incredible run winning 13 of their last 14 – most of them close encounters.

Geelong have won 13 in a row and are playing faultless footy at the moment.  Their average winning margin has been significantly higher than Collingwood’s – closer to the seven goal mark.

While Collingwood have played with amazing spirit this year I think Geelong are clearly the better side at this point in time.  They won’t want to give the Pies a sniff here but I think they will win this and win it pretty comfortably.

Suggested Bet – Geelong @ $1.38 (Multi) & .4 Units Geelong 40+ @ $3.60 (Sportsbet)

Fremantle Dockers v Western Bulldogs

Saturday 3/9/22 @ Perth

Last 5 Encounters |  Fremantle 2  |  Western Bulldogs 3

The Western Bulldogs head west to tackle Fremantle in elimination final #2.  Despite significant problems in defence for much of the year they have found a way to sneak into the eight and will be looking to do something similar to what they did last year – coming from outside the top four to make the grand final.

Fremantle have had a very solid season, finishing with 15 wins and 6 losses and a draw.  They are quite the opposite to the Dogs.  They have a very solid defensive unit but at times struggle to score.

When these two sides met in Melbourne in round 21 it was Freo who dominated the first half and were able to hold that lead for the rest of the game.  Much has been made of the way the Bulldogs defended in that game, they sat off and allowed Fremantle a lot of uncontested marks and the Dockers made them pay.  I can’t see that happening this time around.  The Dogs have shown they can get it done on the road in finals and I’m happy to side with them here.

Suggested Bet – .7 Units Western Bulldogs @ $2.64 (Sportsbet)

Multi – 3 Units @ $2.31 (Sportsbet)

  • Richmond (Win)
  • Geelong (Win)