The final game of the season is upon us and what a mouth-watering contest it will be when two of the big Victorian clubs meet at the Gabba on Saturday! Who would of thought we would be saying “meet at the Gabba! Richmond was involved in one of the great finals games on Friday night, yet again finding a way to overcome adversary when many, including yours truly, were writing them off. They defeated Port Adelaide in Adelaide by six points.  Geelong, provided their fans with much less stress as their experience shone through against Brisbane. 40 points was the final margin in favour of the men from Geelong.

Last weeks suggested bets were unsuccessful however, the futures bet that was suggested in round 13 – Geelong Top 4 Finish / Lachie Neale Brownlow 2.5 units @ $2.47 was paid out on Sunday night. Neale won the Brownlow with ease, polling an incredible 31 votes in 17 games.

Week: + 1.17 units l Overall: + 14.06 units

Back a Winner AFL stock image

Geelong $2.05 v Richmond $1.84

If Richmond are to win on Saturday, that would make it three premierships in the last four years, an incredible effort.  They have stars all over the park, a great leader in Trent Cotchin and a superstar in Dustan Martin who continues to play well in just about every big game.  Dusty has won the Norm Smith Medal for best a field in both of Richmond’s premierships.

Geelong have won three of the last twelve premierships, but after numerous top four finishes have been absent for the final game of the season in recent years.  Now that they have successfully progressed past the prelim phase can they go all the way?

One of the big talking points this week has been Patrick Dangerfield.  At last “Danger” gets the opportunity to play in the biggest game of them all.  His career is distinguished, it features Brownlow’s, multiple All Australians, Coach’s MVP’s you name it, he has got it.  Except one thing… the thing that he has strived so hard for since making the move from Adelaide at the end of the 2016 season.  This would put the exclamation mark on a hall of fame career.

Gone are the days of the shoot outs between the big forwards where it was not uncommon to see 8,9 even 10 + goals from one player.  In a season of shorter quarters 3 or 4 goals is perhaps as significant as 8 once was.  For Geelong, Tom Hawkins and Patrick Dangerfield are most likely while at Richmond end Tom Lynch is the man.  Or maybe Jack Riewoldt wind back the clock and produce something special on the biggest day of all.

Most were expecting a tight contest when these teams met in round 17.  However Richmond dominated Geelong who took until the last quarter to score their first goal.  The fact that game is so recent surely is a factor here.

These two sides also played in last years preliminary final.  Geelong took a 17 point lead into half time but the second half would see Richmond turn the game on its head, the Tigers going on to win comfortably in the end by three goals.

The Verdict

Expecting a good contest but finding it very hard to go past Richmond at the current odds.  Richmond to make it three out of the last four premierships, a dynasty.

Lewis’ Betting Strategy

Richmond To Cover the Line (-2.5) – 1.5 units @ $1.91

Dustin Martin Norm Smith Medal – .5 unit @ $6