After we were treated to four terrific games of footy in week one of the finals, last weeks semi finals were a disappointing spectacle.  That’s probably putting it kindly!  However from a betting point of view, it was a great round!  The one suggested bet was on Richmond to cover the line against St Kilda and it was successful.  St Kilda showed glimpses but in the end Richmond were far to strong for the Saints who get a big pass mark for their season.  The collect was 2.85 units from a 1.5 unit outlay.

The Saturday night game between Geelong and Collingwood was one of the more one sided finals in recent times.  Geelong won by 68 points as it appeared Collingwood had used up everything the week before against West Coast.

Four teams remain – Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Richmond and Geelong and two cracking finals await a preview this week.  The victors will advance to the AFL Grand Final to be played next week at the Gabba.

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Preliminary Final 1 – Port Adelaide $1.80 v Richmond $2

These two sides met earlier in the year and if this contest is anywhere close to as good as that one then footy fans are in for a real treat.  It was a brutal game of contested footy that night.  Port Adelaide the victors by 21 points.

Port Adelaide have had the luxury of a week off going into this game after they accounted for Geelong in their qualifying final two weeks ago.  They were dominant in the second half and showed the rest of the competition that their brand can hold up under finals pressure.

Richmond, after succumbing to Brisbane, have had to do it the hard way.  However it was no surprise to see Damian Hardwicks’s men bounce back with a win on Friday night against the Saints.  The Tigers were solid in patches but the performance might have been slightly flattering.  They made the most of their opportunities whilst St Kilda squandered theirs.

A big talking point out of Port Adelaide’s win over Geelong was the Trent McKenzie match up on Tom Hawkins.  Hawkins, although kicking poorly, managed to have seven shots on goal and was clearly too big and strong for the undersized McKenzie.  What does Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley do on Friday night?  Does he back McKenzie to play on one of Richmond’s key forwards or does he look to deploy him on a smaller opponent and have Tom Jonas and Tom Clurey look after the Richmond keys.

It was $1.90 take your pick in the head to head market when the bookies put the prices up for this match.  But as the week has progressed there has been strong money for Port Adelaide and they look likely to start a firming favorite on home soil.

For much of the year Richmond appeared to have one hand on the Premiership cup but the loss to Brisbane was significant and it has resulted in the worst possible scenario for the Tigers.  A knock out final against Port Adelaide, in Adelaide, with a home crowd behind them.  Richmond look a rung below their best and I have been taken by the brutal brand of football Port Adelaide have been playing.  The Power are full of belief and look primed to cease an opportunity to advance into a Grand Final for the first time since 2007.

Suggested bet is Port Adelaide at the Line (-2.5)

Preliminary Final 2 – Brisbane $1.74 v Geelong $2.1

Brisbane will play Geelong in the second of the Preliminary finals on Saturday Night.

Like Port Adelaide, Brisbane are coming off a weeks break and will be brimming with confidence after a run away win over Richmond.   Geelong were easy victors over Collingwood in a semi final last week.

Brisbane have a star in each position, Charlie Cameron (Forward), Lachie Neale (Midfield), Harris Andrews (Defender).  The rest pitch in and play their role.  Like Port Adelaide the Lions now believe and a lot of credit can go to head coach Chris Fagan for this.

Geelong are no strangers to preliminary finals but this stage of the season has proven their stumbling block in recent times.  The Cats have exited via a preliminary final in three out of the last four seasons.  It would be nothing short of disastrous for the Cats if they are to exit at this stage again.

When these sides met during the home and away season Brisbane took a 10 point lead into half time.  Geelong turned that margin around quickly in the second half and ended up running out 33 point winners.  That game was at the neutral venue of the SCG.  The Lions will get a home ground advantage this time around.

Sadly for Geelong, I think this could be another preliminary final exit.

Suggested Bet is Brisbane at the Line (-2.5).

Lewis’ Betting Strategy

Richmond v Port Adelaide – Port Adelaide Line (-2.5)

  • 1.5 unit @ $1.9

Brisbane v Geelong – Brisbane Line (-2.5)

  • 1 unit @ $1.9