Collingwood Magpies v Brisbane Lions (Saturday Afternoon)

Collingwood and Brisbane will meet in the AFL Grand Final at the MCG on Saturday afternoon.

They finished one, two on the AFL ladder at seasons end so it comes as no surprise to see both teams progress through to the last Saturday in September.

They met twice during the year.  And the record reads two-zero in Brisbane’s favour.  Brisbane won by 33 points at the Gabba in round 4 and by 24 points at Marvel in round 23.  Brisbane have in fact won the last six times these teams have met.

The Magpies have won two tight finals to progress to the Grand Final.  The first was the qualifying final against Melbourne and last week they held on against the Giants in a thriller.

Despite the Lions slow start last week they have had much more comfortable finals victories against Port Adelaide and Carlton and that was to be expected with such a significant home ground advantage.

It was confirmed on Thursday night that key forward Daniel McStay, ironically recruited from the Lions to Collingwood in the off-season, will miss with injury and will be replaced by Billy Frampton.  Frampton has been able to make some impact in the games he has played this year however McStay plays a very important role in the Magpies front half and I see him as quite a significant loss.

I tend to agree with the current h2h prices which see the Magpies a slight favourite.  Clearly the home ground advantage is significant for them.

I am going to suggest a small bet on the total score going under.  Despite the forecast for a warm day I can see this being a pretty tight and relatively low scoring tussle.

Note that we did recommend a futures bet on Brisbane to win the premiership at the start of the season at $7.50.  Hopefully a few still have a pending ticket!

Enjoy Grand Final day!

Staking Plan |

  • 1 Unit Total Points UNDER 167.5 @ $1.88