Geelong Cats v Sydney Swans
Saturday 24th September 2022 @ MCG
And then there were two…
For the first time in three years all roads lead to the MCG on Saturday afternoon as Geelong and Sydney play off for the 2022 AFL Premiership Cup.
As always there are countless storylines going into the biggest game of the year. Will Patrick Dangerfield finally get that elusive premiership? The redemption story of Tyson Stengle – from delisted free agent to All Australian. Former number 1 draft pick Paddy McCartin’s remarkable come back from concussion. The list goes on.
It’s no surprise to see these two proud clubs here, they are without doubt the two best teams of season 2022. Geelong have won some 15 games straight and were clinical last Friday night against the Lions at the MCG. Sydney have won 9 straight and like Geelong the night before took a handsome lead into half time against Collingwood. However, rather than extend their lead after half time like the Cats had done, they began to play conservative football which allowed Collingwood to get on a run and very nearly snatch it. The Swans held on by a single point.
Both clubs wait anxiously to see whether a key member of their side lines up on Saturday. For the Cats its young gun Max Holmes who has offered them so much run and carry this season – something they had identified as a weakness in previous years. He has a hamstring complaint and looks a genuine 50/50 chance to play. For the Swans it’s the veteran Sam Reid. Reid was pivotal in setting up their half time lead last week and is a crucial part of their forward line. He has battled injury for much of his career and it would be the cruellest of blows if he was to miss here. He has an abductor injury and looks less likely than Holmes to take his spot at this stage.
The thing that has been so impressive about Geelong this season is their evenness across the field. They are a very complete side and rely on no, one individual, to win games of footy. The fact that they could have two champions like Dangerfield and Selwood start on the bench in a qualifying final really highlights this. Sydney will be a little more reliant on some of their stars to play well but they are certainly up to it. Heeney, Mills, Papley, Franklin and Warner all love the big stage.
These sides met once during the year. The relevance is debatable given it was way back in round 2 at the SCG and it was the night that Buddy kicked his 1000th goal. Sydney ran out 5 goal winners. Both sides are playing vastly different footy now.
I think the market has it pretty close to spot on. Geelong have to be favourite and the two goal line as it currently stands looks about right.
With the forecast looking good for Saturday the total points market is where I want to play. Both sides play a fast flowing brand which can see plenty of points put on here. The current total of 164.5 looks on the lower side as no matter what the score line both teams will continue to take the game on.
Looking at the Norm Smith Market – there are two Cats – one at either end – that stand out.
Jeremy Cameron – polled 19 votes in Sunday nights Brownlow. Was a little quiet last week. Expecting a huge game from him.
Tom Stewart – absolute gun who sets Geelong up across half back. Takes intercept marks and gets plenty of the footy. That’s a good recipe to poll well in a Norm Smith.
Betting Strategy:
1.5 Units TOTAL MATCH POINTS OVER 164.5 @ $1.90 (Top Sport)
.5 Unit Jeremy Cameron – Norm Smith Medal @ $9 (Sportsbet)
.5 Unit Tom Stewart – Norm Smith Medal @ $12 (Sportsbet)