Super Rugby Pacific Round 4 Selections

Back-to-back weeks the Blues have had their game go right down to the wire but this time they were on the better side of it. Defensively they will need to improve after missing 22 tackles against the Chiefs and they will no doubt be practicing their line-outs at training, after losing three of them last weekend. The other area they will need to improve is their discipline after conceding 12 penalties and having one yellow card. For the Blues sake, let’s hope they can improve to the level we know they can hit. The Highlanders are also on the block defensively, missing 15 tackles against the Hurricanes but also turning the ball over 22 times in their seven point defeat. They have been making teams fight to beat them this year, and I expect this to be no different.

Blues to win this in a tight one, expect the Highlanders to really give them a show.

Predictions:

Tip: Blues ($1.17)

Line: Highlanders +10.5 ($1.85)

Margin: Blues 1-12 ($2.80)

*Prices via TAB

This could be a massive mismatch barring massive improvement from the Rebels. They were ordinary against the Drua and they failed to control the game like a team should. They turned the ball over 16 times, missed 25 tackles, lost 5 rucks at the breakdown, conceded 11 penalties and lost two scrums in their 5 point defeat, which flattered them. The Brumbies were similar but had the class to keep the score line ticking over. They were also ordinary defensively, missing 28 tackles and also lost out on a couple of lineouts and a scrum. It was an off game by the Brumbies standards but they managed to keep their unbeaten start to the season.

I expect it to continue here, they should route the Rebels.

Predictions:

Tip: ACT Brumbies ($1.05)

Line: ACT Brumbies -17.5 ($1.90)

Margin: ACT Brumbies 13+ ($1.52)

*Prices via TAB

It seems to be a theme of most teams after the last round, defence. The Hurricanes will need to improve defensively, especially here against the expansive Moana Pasifika team. The Canes should have put the Highlanders to bed but errors and missed tackles made it tighter than it needed to be. Moana Pasifika were impressive in their debut and I personally didn’t give them enough credit. They handled the Crusaders well but conditioning and class prevailed as the Crusaders streaked away. With a game under their belt, they are going to give this a real shake.

Hurricanes to win but I like Moana Pasifika to cover the massive line. I still think the Hurricanes can put a gap in but not by the line given.

Predictions:

Tip: Hurricanes ($1.02)

Line:  Moana Pasifika +24.5 ($1.85)

Margin: Hurricanes 13+ ($1.32)

*Prices via TAB

The Crusaders were lucky last week that they were playing a team less conditioned and less game day experience than them because they game them plenty of opportunity to run over the top of them. The missed tackles, turned the ball over a lot and even lost a scrum. The coach would be giving them a spray at training and I expect a better team to run out against the Chiefs. The Chiefs on the other hand played better than expected against the Blues and matched them statistically across the park.

Crusaders to come out and blow the Chiefs away, not because they are bad, but I expect a much improved Crusaders to last week.

Predictions:

Tip: Crusaders ($1.25)

Line: Crusaders -7.5 ($1.90)

Margin: Crusaders 13+ ($2.40)

*Prices via TAB

Can I just say, how good has the grit been by the Queensland Reds. I wrote them off last weekend having to travel with injuries knowing what was happening back in their home state, they were mentally strong and too classy for the Force. James O’Connor was in a class of his own and dominated with second-phase play throughout. They need to work on their ruck play after losing three to the Force, lost four lineouts and showed a lot of ill-discipline. The Drua got their first victory against the poor Melbourne Rebels, but credit where credit is due, the Drua took advantage and built on it.

This looks a bridge too far for the Drua as the Reds look to make it a big home coming.

Predictions:

Tip: QLD Reds ($1.01)

Line: QLD Reds -24.5 ($1.85)

Margin: QLD Reds 13+ ($1.22)

*Prices via TAB

I thought the Waratahs played quite well against the Brumbies last weekend, but they are wearing thin on me after back-to-back losses. They have a chance to enter the winners circle again here. Against the Brumbies, they played well in many areas but struggled a touch at the breakdown and with their discipline. One huge improvement in their game has been their scrum and they will back themselves this weekend no doubt against a Force team that lost four scrums last weekend. They had a poor showing in their return home and failed to capitalise on two yellow cards that were given to the Reds.

The Waratahs will want to hit back at home and I think they can.

Predictions:

Tip: NSW Waratahs ($1.60)

Line: NSW Waratahs -2.5 ($1.85)

Margin: NSW Waratahs 1-12 ($3.00)

*Prices via TAB