Super Rugby Pacific Round 12 Selections

The Blues head back home after two games in Australia where they didn’t show their brilliant best. They led the Western Force 22-8 at the half but failed to score a point in the second half, even whilst the Force had a player off the field for 10 minutes. They were ordinary defensively and they lost 5 of their 13 lineouts which is beyond poor. They were also very poor with their discipline, conceding a yellow card and 14 penalties. It was a good wake-up call for them, that they can’t just rock up and handle every team they play. The Rebels were equally as poor despite winning their game against Moana Pasifika. They missed a whopping 36 tackles, lost 6 rucks, and conceded a red card late in the game.

I expect improvement from both clubs but more so from the Blues, especially being on home soil. I think 24.5 is ridiculous and I expect it to be a lot closer than that but the Blues still winning comfortably.

Predictions:

Tip: Blues ($1.02)

Line: Rebels +24.5 ($1.91)

Margin: Blues 13+

*Prices via Ladbrokes as of 03/05/22

How tough were the Reds again?! I will throw my hand up and say I didn’t think they would fight through as much adversity as they have this season but here we are. They are set to face another big problem, with the loss of Taniela Tupou for the rest of the season with a calf injury, but I expect them to fight after what I have seen this year. Despite losing to the Chiefs, The Reds were very strong defensively and it was their costly errors and poor decisions in attack that cost them in the end. They will have to fix up that discipline also, conceding 15 penalties and 2 yellow cards in their 2-point defeat. The Highlanders were almost beaten by the big occasion of the Fijian Drua returning to Fiji, but alas they held on for a 3-point win. They missed a massive 27 tackles and 3 rucks but they were able to come back to win the match.

I am backing the Reds to have enough fight to withhold the Highlanders and I think the line is fair enough considering the Reds are at home once again and the Highlanders have to travel for the third time in three weeks.

Predictions:

Tip: Reds ($1.50)

Line: Reds -4.5 ($1.83)

Margin: Reds 1-12

*Prices via Ladbrokes as of 03/05/2022

Bet: No O’Connor, No Tupou, No problem? We sure hope so. The Reds at home against a Highlanders team that has been far from impressive this year. The line is fair and I expect the Reds to cover. Reds -4.5 | 3u @ $1.83

I expect this to be a good contest for some part of the match before class prevails. Moana Pasifika played well enough against the Rebels but poor set plays meant 3 lineouts were lost and also 1 scrum. They were immaculate defensively, only missing 9 tackles in the entire game but they were unable to get the job done on the scoreboard. The Waratahs are coming off a tough yet immaculate victory against the champion Crusaders outfit. Despite losing in some key areas throughout the game, the Crusaders were worse in those areas so it come down to attacking prowess, to which the Waratahs capitalised, putting on 2 converted tries very early and leading the Crusaders 17-0 at the half. They proved they weren’t the Waratahs of 2021 and that they can match it with anyone.

I expect the Waratahs to flex a little on their first trip across the ditch. I think the line is a little insulting to the Tahs who can put points on in quick succession and will be looking to win both legs of their matches across the ditch in style.

Predictions:

Tip: Waratahs ($1.33)

Line: Waratahs -7.5 ($1.83)

Margin: Waratahs 13+

*Prices via Ladbrokes as of 03/05/2022

Bet: The Waratahs fresh of their win against the Crusaders will be full of confidence and focus knowing they can make themselves known in this competition, and there is no better way to do that than to put a score on in their first visit across the ditch. Waratahs -7.5 | 3u @ $1.83

The scoreline really flattered the Chiefs in their 2-point win over the Reds as it took two yellow cards in the second half for them to score after going into the break 13 apiece. Apart from the late red card, the Chiefs improved nicely in their discipline and defensively they were pretty good, but this was their chance to really put a statement on one of the better Australian teams who weren’t full strength and they failed to do it. The Brumbies on the other hand sent a message to the rest of the league with a 17-point demolition of the Hurricanes. They now sit second and still have only had the one loss this season.

Much like their Australian counterparts the Waratahs who are also travelling, I expect the Brumbies to flex across the ditch to further establish their position in the competition and to make others fear them.

Predictions:

Tip: Brumbies ($3.25)

Line: Brumbies +7.5 ($1.83)

Margin: Brumbies 1-12

*Prices via Ladbrokes as of 03/05/2022

Bet: The Brumbies have only lost once this year and have nicely beaten the Highlanders and Hurricanes in back-to-back weeks. This is harder again having to travel but after what they did to the Hurricanes, they will fancy themselves here. I am backing them to win but also betting the line in case they are slightly off their game. Brumbies H2H 2u @ $3.25 / Brumbies +7.5 | 3u @$1.83

The Crusaders played well below their standard against a Waratahs team that blew them off the park early. Costly errors and ill-discipline cost them throughout but credit to them because they fought right until the final siren, to go down by just 3 points. The Force was the same in their game against the Blues where they were blown off the park early by the Blues before fighting back to go down by just 4 points. They were a lot better than what they showed and probably would have beaten the Blues had they not conceded 22 points in quick succession.

I expect the Crusaders to hit back here and win but the line is insulting to the Force, who I think will be in this match until the end.

Predictions:

Tip: Crusaders ($1.07)

Line: Western Force +17.5 ($1.91)

Margin: Crusaders 1-12

*Prices via Ladbrokes as of 03/05/2022

The Hurricanes will be looking to hit back from their loss to the Brumbies with a win here at home. They weren’t necessarily bad against the Brumbies, the Brumbies were just too good. They did struggle a lot with attacking cohesion with a lot of passes hitting the deck when in the attack. They will no doubt be really training hard around their attack and connecting those passes and finishing their plays off well. Fijian Drua got to play their first official home game last weekend and it’s unfortunate they couldn’t get it done for their fans but like they have all tournament, they had given it their all.

I expect the Hurricanes to be too good for the Drua here to close out the round.

Predictions:

Tip: Hurricanes ($1.07)

Line: Hurricanes -16.5 ($1.91)

Margin: Hurricanes 13+

*Prices via Ladbrokes as of 03/05/22