Super Rugby Pacific Round 11 Selections

The Reds were nothing but brave against the Hurricanes last weekend, and finding out they would be without James O’Connor for a couple of weeks I believe really hurt their organisation and spice in attack. Despite scoring 17 points early, they let the Hurricanes in for 30 unanswered points and I believe they don’t score those 17 points without that second yellow card to the Hurricanes. Discipline and work at the breakdown were again a factor for the Reds and they will need to clean it up against this Chiefs outfit. The Chiefs were nothing but clinical against the Waratahs and aside from the one yellow card, they were pretty much dominant in all areas of the game.

Chiefs to win this game well and if the Reds don’t keep themselves in check discipline-wise, this could be a monster scoreline.

Predictions:

Tip: Chiefs ($1.36)

Line: Chiefs -7.5 ($1.90)

Margin: Chiefs 13+

*Prices via Ladbrokes as of 26/04/22

Bet: The Reds went down by 13 points to the Hurricanes which could have been more and the Chiefs, were 24 points better than the Waratahs, to whom they toyed with. Without James O’Connor and knowing the Chiefs’ style of play, backing the Chiefs at the line is a nice move. Chiefs -7.5 – 3u @ $1.90

There isn’t a lot to be said about this game as one side (Western Force) is coming off a week off due to COVID striking the team, which isn’t the ideal preparation when facing a team like the Blues. The Blues were too good for the Fijian Drua despite being a bit sloppy in their lineout play and at the breakdown. I have no doubt they will have worked on that at training this week and with another week on Australian shores, I expect them to come up blazing.

Blues by a scoreline!

Predictions:

Tip: Blues ($1.05)

Line: Blues -23.5 ($1.90)

Margin: Blues 13+

*Prices via Ladbrokes as of 26/4/2022

On face value, I thought this could be a tight game but as I dived deeper into each team’s games from the weekend, the more I leaned over to the Highlanders. The Fijian Drua played well enough to keep in touch with the Blues on the weekend but they were truly no match for them. Their game has improved ten-fold but the New Zealand teams offer a different kind of challenge for them in which they may take a couple of games to read. The Highlanders were actually better than I thought they would be against the Brumbies and kept themselves right in the game up until late. They rested Aaron Smith, which was a different yet understandable move and he will no doubt return for this clash.

I expect the Highlanders to win well, despite Fiji taking a game to their homeland for the first time in 2022.

Predictions:

Tip: Highlanders ($1.20)

Line: Highlanders -11.5 ($1.90)

Margin: Highlanders 13+ (Price to come)

*Prices via Ladbrokes as of 26/04/2022

Much like the Chiefs did to the Waratahs on the weekend, the Crusaders did it better against the Rebels, and toyed with them for the entire game. The statistics for the game are insane, both in attack and defence, and even though the Waratahs aren’t the Rebels, the Crusaders aren’t here to muck around. The Waratahs have shown this year that they aren’t the Waratahs of 2021 but not quite up to the Waratahs of old.

I think the Crusaders get this done quite comfortably.

Predictions:

Tip: Crusaders ($1.06)

Line: Crusaders -22.5 ($1.90)

Margin: Crusaders 13+

*Prices via Ladbrokes as of 26/04/2022

The Rebels were tough against the Crusaders but in the end the Crusaders show their class winning comfortably. The stats show how the Crusaders suffocated the Rebels in the second half but the Rebels will take on board their finest half of football, holding one of the best New Zealand teams to just seven points in the first half. I think they can build on that and learn a lot as they lead into their best winnable chance of the Trans-Tasman leg. Moana Pasifika can’t catch a break in terms of games having their canceled again following a COVID outbreak in the Western Force. They would have no doubt watched the Rebels display on the weekend in preparation for this one.

I think the Rebels can win this and win it well in front of their home crowd. To go down by just 25 to the Crusaders is a tremendous effort and I think they can really tough out a win against Moana Pasifika.

Predictions:

Tip: Melbourne Rebels ($1.50)

Line: Melbourne Rebels -5.5 ($1.90)

Margin: Melbourne Rebels 13+

*Prices via Ladbrokes as of 26/04/2022

Bet: The Rebels will find this game a lot easier than last weekend and I expect them to turn up with the same intensity knowing this could be their best chance at some serious points for the ladder. Melbourne Rebels -5.5 – 3u @ $1.90.

This is the game of the round and it’s going to be a cracker. The Hurricanes were nothing but tremendous against the Reds and probably would have had a bigger margin if it wasn’t for their scrappiness early on. Once they got their full compliment of players on after two yellow cards, they put on 30 unanswered points in their 13 point win. They will need to work on that as they won’t get away with it against the Brumbies. They were good against the Highlanders but I thought they could have been better. The contrast in skill between the top and bottom of the New Zealand teams isn’t high but high enough to cause the Australian teams some serious damage.

I expect a tremendous game here and a close on at that. I think the Hurricanes have the class edge and can steal a win here by around 7-10 points.

Predictions:

Tip: Hurricanes ($1.60)

Line: Hurricanes -3.5 ($1.90)

Margin: Hurricanes 1-12

*Prices via Ladbrokes as of 26/04/22

Bet: Hurricanes flexed their muscles against the Reds who shot out of the gates early due to some il-discipline by the Hurricanes. I expect a much more improved effort around discipline and for them to win this in a tight one. Hurricanes -3.5 – 3u @ $1.90.