The Heat have won 2 of their past 3 matches (it should of been 3 from 3) and are now a realistic chance of making finals with the imminent return of Chris Lynn.
Englishman Joe Denly has joined the Heat squad and fills a void at number 3 in the Heat order. The Heat have looked unstable at times and I think he can anchor the innings and give the rest something to bat around.
The Thunder are ticking along very nicely and currently sit on top of the table. Alex Hales is in rare form with the bat and is a crucial wicket for the Heat if they are to get the points against the Thunder.
An important factor here is that this is only the Thunders 2nd game away from Canberra this season. The Gabba wicket is much quicker and bouncier than Manuka Oval and whilst the Thunder batters will likely enjoy batting on it, it is a different challenge for their bowlers. Especially for the spinners Sangha and Green who they rely heavily on to keep the game tight through the middle overs.
I think the Thunder have been priced as if the game was at Manuka (Canberra) and therefore the Heat represent value here at $2.25.