Overall results: +0.1u
- Week 4: +0.5u
- Week 3: +2.65u
- Week 2: -0.6u
- Week 1: -2.52u
Newcastle Knights vs Manly Sea Eagles
Thursday April 7 | McDonald Jones Stadium | 7.50pm AEDT
Whilst we’re only four games into the season, these two sides have had very different starts to the year. The Knights came out in a blaze of glory, winning their first two before dropping the next two. While the Sea Eagles have recovered from two dismal opening round losses with two solid wins to sit 2-2. But Manly are now without Tom Trbojevic and they have a poor record when he’s not in the side. It presents a golden opportunity for the Knights to return to winning form and signal they are a serious top 8 contender. The Knights have also won the last three meetings between the teams.
Suggested bet: 1u Newcastle win at $1.80
New Zealand Warriors vs North Queensland Cowboys
Friday April 8 | Moreton Daily Stadium | 6.00pm AEDT
Another tight game according to the market with both sides sitting 2-2. The Warriors are looking for their third win on the trot after taking down the Tigers and Broncos. Similarly, the Cowboys have beaten the Broncos easily in the early stages of the season, but were brought back to earth with a big loss to the Roosters last week. There’s a few personnel changes to both sides, but they appear to even out with replacements. This will be a typically close encounter between these two sides. Interesting stat is that the Cowboys have lost 11 of their last 12 night games.
Suggested bet: 0.5u win Warriors at $1.90
Brisbane Broncos vs Sydney Roosters
Friday April 8 | Suncorp Stadium | 7.55pm AEDT
After winning their opening two and looking impressive, the wheels have fallen off Brisbane with back-to-back losses to the Cowboys and Warriors. The Roosters saved their best performance of the season for last week with a big win over North Queensland. The Roosters have won three of the last four encounters with the Broncos, with two of those wins coming by huge margins. This is a big test for the Broncos who have some injury concerns, and whilst they are home, I think they’ll be outclassed.
Suggested bet: 1u Roosters -15.5 at $1.90
Canberra Raiders vs Melbourne Storm
Saturday April 9 | McDonalds Park | 3.00pm AEDT
Hard to weigh up the Raiders so far, with some poor performances mixed with some encouraging wins. Melbourne have won the last four games between the teams so it’s hard to predict a Canberra upset. Although it was only against the Bulldogs, the Storm last week reminded us they shouldn’t be written off as a premiership contender. High-flying Storm pair Ryan Papenhuyzen and Xavier Coates will again be hard to stop. I think the market has this one about right and we still don’t really know where the Raiders sit in season 2022.
No suggested bet
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs St George Illawarra Dragons
Saturday April 9 | Accor Stadium | 5.30pm AEDT
Very tricky clash and I’m not sure the Dragons will be easy-beats for the Rabbitohs. But the problem is the Dragons leaky defence, which has given 36 points to the Sharks and 48 points to the Eels in recent weeks. Both of these sides sit 1-3 and one will have a serious uphill battle to make finals if they drop this clash. Having said that, the Rabbitohs have endured a tough early season draw. The Dragons get Jaydn Su’A back in time to face his former club and he could be the key to making this competitive.
Suggested bet: 1u Dragons +9.5 at $1.90
Gold Coast Titans vs Parramatta Eels
Saturday April 9 | Cbus Super Stadium | 7.35pm AEDT
A couple of key inclusions for the Titans here with Beau Fermor, Phil Sami and Isaac Liu all returning. This is the second time these two sides have met after the Eels prevailed 32-28 back in Round 1. The Titans could very well have turned the tables in that clash, but the Eels have really surged since that victory, beating Melbourne and then thrashing the Dragons last week. There was nothing to be inspired by last week as the Titans scored a 8-6 arm-wrestle win over the Tigers, and their second half slump to lose to the Raiders the week prior was also a concern.
Suggested bet: 1u Eels -7.5 at $1.90
Cronulla Sharks vs Wests Tigers
Sunday April 10 | PointsBet Stadium | 4.05pm AEDT
Both sides go into this unchanged and the Sharks deserved short-priced favourites over the winless Tigers. The Sharks continue to go from strength-to-strength and it seems their resolve has only been solidified after the tough first round loss to the Raiders. Since then they’ve been clinical, particularly in the past two wins. The Sharks are playing a strong brand of footy under Fitzgibbon and they have the personnel to break open the defence. This is highlighted by their 26 line breaks across the first four rounds in contrast to the Tigers 13.
Suggested bet: 0.5 Sharks -17.5 at $1.90
Canterbury Bulldogs vs Penrith Panthers
Sunday April 10 | CommBank Stadium | 6.15pm AEDT
Another lopsided match-up on Sunday as the Dogs come off a 44-0 loss to Brisbane to face Penrith. It’s a big task for the Dogs as Penrith have won the last three meetings by 26 points or more. It’s hard to see this one being any different, however, if you forget last week’s drubbing the Bulldogs have started the season with some glimpses of positive signs. In terms of personnel changes, there’s been plenty of pressure heaped on Kyle Flanagan’s return for the Bulldogs, while the Panthers are further bolstered by James Fisher-Harris and Liam Martin returning. It’s hard to see this going any other way than a big Penrith win.
Suggested bet: 1u win Penrith -19.5 at $1.90