Manly Sea Eagles v North Queensland Cowboys
These two sides come off a bye last weekend so there should fresh legs in the Cowboys and Sea Eagles. Origin hero Tom Trbojevic will be rested with Dylan Walker his replacement for Manly, who also have Daly Cherry-Evans and Jake Trbojevic set to back up after Origin. Kieran Foran is also set to return from injury. For the Cowboys, winger Kyle Feldt copped an injury during Origin and won’t back-up, while Valentine Holmes is good to go. Both sides have been playing good footy with both victorious in six of their past eight. I think the Sea Eagles are worse off from Origin and we’re getting a nice price about the Cowboys in what shapes as an even contest.
Suggested bet – 1u Cowboys win at $2.65
Cronulla Sharks v Penrith Panthers
A lot has changed since the Sharks were demolished 48-0 by the Panthers in round nine. Now the Panthers are coming off their first loss of the season and have several key personnel concerns, with Origin reps Nathan Cleary, Jarome Luai, Isaah Yeo, Brian To’o and Kurt Capewell all being rested. As for the Sharks, they come off a week’s rest and also get five players returning from injury or suspension. While the Panthers did suffer their first loss last weekend, they have not lost back-to-back games since August 2019. While it’s an interesting stat, it doesn’t factor in the amount of players not available due to Origin. The Sharks come off two wins over lesser sides, arresting a six-game losing streak prior. With the Sharks welcoming back so many key names, and the Panthers decimated from Origin, this has to be a bet on Cronulla.
Suggested bet – 1u Sharks win at $2.60
Gold Coast Titans v Sydney Roosters
The Roosters head up the Gold Coast for a Saturday afternoon clash. Importantly, the Rooster haven’t suffered a loss in their last nine day games. They should also be refreshed from their bye last round, and despite a heavy injury toll, continue sniffing around the top four. They come up against a spluttering Titans side now without prop Moeaki Fotuaika due to Origin suspension. James Tedesco is likely to back up from Origin for the Roosters. While the Titans are playing inconsistently, this is a game that’s not beyond them and they were in the contest for a long way last week against the Storm.
Suggested bet – 1u Titans +12 at $1.90
South Sydney Rabbitohs v Newcastle Knights
Interesting form line here with the Rabbitohs coming off the bye in round 13 after their big win over the Eels the week prior, while the Knights come off a bruising loss to the Eels. The Knights were down on troops and there’s not much respite here in that regard, but they are hopeful of having Origin prop Daniel Saifiti available. This week Souths have their own personnel worries, with Dane Gagai and Jai Arrow rested from Origin, while they await how Damien Cook, Latrell Mitchell, Cameron Murray and Jaydn Su’A come through Origin duties. Even without some star players, the Rabbitohs should have the depth to cover and beat the Knights.
Suggested bet – 0.5u Rabbitohs -17.5 at $1.90
Canberra Raiders v Brisbane Broncos
Two struggling sides with the Broncos scoring victory only three times this season, and Canberra four. While home ground would usually be an advantage for the Raiders, they are 1-5 here so far in 2021. However, the away record for the Broncos is worse (1-7) and they have lost 16 of their past 17 games away from home. Jack Wighton should back up for the Raiders after limited minutes in Origin, while Payne Haas and Xavier Coates have been named for the Broncos. Difficult match to asses so happy to stay out of the betting.
No suggested bet
New Zealand Warriors v Melbourne Storm
The inconsistent Warriors host the ultra-professional winning machine of the Melbourne Storm at Gosford. While the Warriors have shown glimpses of the potential needed to press for finals, they remain plagued by lapses in concentration. In contrast, the Storm just keep winning and are gunning for 11 straight here. Nelson Asofa-Solomona will miss through suspension but it’s expected all of the Storm’s Origin guns will play in some capacity. The Warriors have made a few changes, most notably skipper Roger Tuivasa-Sheck returning to fullback, young gun Reece Walsh is out suspended, but star prop Addin Fonua-Blake has also been named. The Storm has won their past 10 matches against the Warriors, who have put up a good fight at this venue winning four of their past six at Central Coast Stadium. The Warriors should be competitive here given they welcome back some players into key positions, and the Storm will be tested with some rusty Origin players.
Suggested bet – 1.5u Warriors +14.5 at $1.90
Parramatta Eels v Wests Tigers
Both the Eels and Tigers come into this off huge bye-round wins and will be looking to consolidate. The Tigers upset an under-strength Panthers, while the Eels made a mess of a similarly undermanned Knights side. Not only did the Tigers become the first team since last year’s grand final to record a win over Penrith, they also recorded back-to-back wins for the first time this year. They’ve now won four of their past six and have momentum up for the back half of the season, but they haven’t won three straight since early 2018. The market might have overcalculated the Tigers recent wins and I think the Eels can cover this line.
Suggested bet – 1.5u Eels -11.5 at $1.85
Canterbury Bulldogs v St George Illawarra Dragons
A pretty lacklustre Monday afternoon clash, with the Dragons hoping to retain their spot in the top eight by beating the cellar-dwelling Bulldogs. The Dragons used the Broncos last week to snap a three-game losing streak, putting on 52 points in an impressive performance. The Dragons have won four of their past five games against the Bulldogs and it’s hard to see them not building on that winning dominance. The Bulldogs have lost their last 13 matches here at home, and the Dragons have covered the line in their past three outings at Stadium Australia.
Suggested bet – 0.5u Dragons -13.5 at $1.90