Current tally: +4.28 units
Carolina did right by us to kick off week 3 with a dominant cover that wasn’t represented on the scoreboard. The rest of the round looks really interesting, especially for teams coming off poor showings in week 2.
New Orleans Saints v New England Patriots
3 am Melbourne time
The Saints laid a complete egg last week after their surprise win against Green Bay, when they came up against the currently number 1 ranked Carolina defence. Winston reverted to one of his worst games ever as the Saints could only manage one touchdown for the entire game. I’m prepared to give them a pass off that performance. The Carolina defence is exceptional and showed it again on Friday. Only have to go one week earlier the Saints were scintillating and proved while they have quite a low floor, their ceiling is also exceptionally high. Winston and the offence should have a slightly easier time of it here against weaker opposition.
The Patriots so far under Mac Jones are still an unknown, they struggled against Miami, and followed up by beating up the lowly Jets, still only ranking 25th in offence. I think going forward they have a lot of upside especially with a strong defence, but right now they don’t deserve to be a ~$1.60 favourite in this spot. The Saints brush off a very unexpected poor showing last week, and are worth a small bet as a decent outsider
Back the New Orleans Saints to win at $2.25 for 0.75 units.
Atlanta Falcons v New York Giants
3 am Melbourne time
Another small play on an outsider here with the Atlanta Falcons proving a very small amount of value going into New York. The Giants come off an extended break just falling short to Washington who were predicted to have a top 8 defence that so far has completely underperformed. Daniel Jones had a game out of the box and still couldn’t find the win after Washington stole it with a last second field goal. The Giants come into this offensively ranked 29th and defensively 24th.
The Falcons come into this only the back of being only 3 points off Tampa Bay in the 3rd quarter before errors rather than the Buccs doing any bit of impressive offensive efforts took over. They have an offence that is certainly better than the Giants, but their defence is abhorrent ranking 2nd last, only better than the Texans. Considering the overall efficiency rankings have the Giants a marginal better team, but I think Atlanta as a decent underdog is a good spot for them. Matt Ryan should tear this Giants defence apart, and the Atlanta defence has been about average in stopping the run, which is what the Giants will try to do. Atlanta look in a good spot to get their first win of the season.
Back the Atlanta Falcons to win at $2.25 for 0.75 units.
Miami Dolphins v Las Vegas Raiders
6 am Melbourne time.
Pretty keen here that the Dolphins can confidently cover the line of 3.5 against the much improved Raiders. This line actually opened +4.5 before being crunched in even on the news of Tua being out, indicating strong sharp support in Las Vegas.
Tua is set to miss here, but he was terrible in week 1 against New England and has also been playing hurt until an injury completely took him out of the game last week. His replacement in Brissett is almost no drop off between the two. The Dolphins are coming off scoring no points against Buffalo, but when you lose a quarterback during a game it makes scheming and preparing a nightmare, whereas here, not only are the Dolphins facing a weaker opponent, they also get a full weeks preparation for it. Last week was a complete non event, and they look here to prepare for a much better performance, similar to week 1 vs New England.
The Raiders are due a let down game. They escaped against Baltimore, before crushing the Steelers who personally I am not rating whatsoever this season while Roethlesberger is still at QB. The Vegas offence is still very inefficient ranking at 22nd so far, just one spot ahead of Miami. This week they lose starting RB Jacobs, while Derek Carr is also playing through a sprained ankle and should he not be comfortable out there, the Raiders back up QB is on IR (Mariota). Defensively the Raiders have over achieved so far but Miami still rank close enough to them considering they lost a game 35-0. Miami may not get the win here but are over valued with the hook to cover in what should be a close low scoring contest.
Back the Miami Dolphins +3.5 at $1.90 for 2 units.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers v LA Rams
6:25 am Melbourne time.
Final tip of the round and another that I’m pretty keen on. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are absolutely airborne to start the year. The receiving core is impeccable and overall offence ranks number 1 in the league so far. The defence has regressed from its insane playoff levels last year, sitting at 19th through two games, but that is more due to injuries rather than regression in ability.
The Rams so far are sitting at 8th, 8th in defence, 8th in offence. About where they are expected to be and come through a win against a low Bears team, but a very, very lucky win over the Colts who butchered two first and goal opportunities and should’ve won that game outright. The Rams are certainly a team to watch out for at the pointy end of the season but they haven’t impressed me so far while the Buccs certainly have. Another reason why Im happy to be against the Rams is Matthew Stafford. He has made a career against beating up low teams, and struggling against the good ones. He is 8 wins and 61 losses against teams with a winning record. Until he can prove he can compete against the best, I’ll side with the known quantity of the defending champions.
Back the Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 at $1.87 for 1.5 units
Summary:
New Orleans Saints to win at $2.25 for 0.75 units.
Atlanta Falcons to win at $2.25 for 0.75 units.
Miami Dolphins +3.5 at $1.90 for 2 units.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.0 at $1.87 for 1.5 units