Track: Heavy   Weather: Possible showers

There are 12 runners for the $150,000 Lord Mayor’s Cup, and they are all geldings. There are 2 four-year-olds, 3 five-year-olds. 4 six-year-olds, 2 seven-year-olds and an eight-year-old. Three of the runners had their last start in the Group 3 Hawkesbury Cup over 1600m on 30 April, three in the Listed Wagga Cup over 2000m on 6 May and three in the Listed Gosford Gold Cup over 2080m on 7 May. Three of the runners are sired by Makfi and two by Motivator. Chris Waller has four runners and Matthew Smith has two.

The betting is fairly open and the early favourite is Bethencourt who has won his last two at Randwick and Warwick Farm on heavy tracks by big margins. Second favourite is Irish Sequel who finished 2.3 lengths 5th in the Wagga Cup. Third favourite is Aleas who won the Wagga Cup and can handle heavy going. Hopeful is a European import whose debut run in Australia was 2nd in the Hawkesbury Cup.

1. So You Win (2)

This seven-year-old So You Think gelding is one of four runners for Chris Waller. Chris has won this race a few times including 2013 with Moriarty, 2015 with Silverball, 2020 with Wu Gok and 2021 with Polly Grey. In 2020 he even trained the trifecta. So You Win won the Listed January Cup at this track and distance on soft going on 8 January, then was spelled for 16 weeks. He resumed for 9th of 15 in the Hawkesbury Cup where he went back from a wide barrier and neve really came into it. Fitter and has a good second-up record.

2. Taikomochi (11)

This eight-year-old Snitzel gelding trained by Gai Wayerhouse and Adrian Bott is the oldest runner in the race. Gai has won this race before with Stoway in 2004, Kinnersley in 2012 and Ecuador in 2016, Jockey Hugh Bowman has also won on Zingam in 2005. Taikomochi resumed for 9 lengths 12th in a Randwick 100 Handicap on 16 April. Goes well in wet conditions, but prefer others.

3. Aleas (3)

Another Waller runner, This four-year-old won the Wagga Cup last start and can handle heavy going. One of the main chances.

4. Hopeful (8)

European import whose debut run in Australia was 2nd in the Hawkesbury Cup. One of two runners sired by Motivator (the other is Mirann). Looks a nice horse and has to be included as a key player.

5. Marroni (7)

One of three runners sired by Makfi (the others are The Frontman and Pappalino). Ran 3rd in the Group 3 Neville Sellwood Stakes on 26 March on a heavy 10 track, but has disappointed at this last 2 starts with the most recent 6th in the Gosford Gold Cup. Can handle the wet, but looking to others.

6. Rock (12)

This six-year-old Pierro gelding has not finished better than 7th in all 5 runs this campaign. Trained by Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes who won with Zephyron in 2014 plus John had won previously with Grampians in 2002. Has drawn the outside barrier which may not be a bad thing, but prefer others.

7. Esti Feny (6)

One of two runners for Matthew Smith who won this race with Grey Lion in 2019. Jockey Jason Collett has also won, on Our Century in 2018. This seven-year-old is a solid stayer but is an unknown on soft and heavy tracks. Not the worst.

8. Irish Sequel (1)

From the Waller stable. This Invincible Spirit gelding finished 2.3 lengths 5th in the Wagga Cup and won over 1800m at Randwick on heavy going the start before. Jockey Tommy Berry won this race last year on Polly Grey. Drawn the inside barrier and expect him to place.

9. The Frontman (9)

Another Waller runner. Ridden by Brenton Avdulla who won on Silverball in 2015. He faded to finish 10th last start in the Hawkesbury Cup on a heavy track and faces a rise in distance. Likely to race on the speed. Rough place chance.

10. Pappalino (4)

Hasn’t placed in his last 8 runs. Unlikely.

11. Bethencourt (5)

This grey has won his last two at Randwick and Warwick Farm on heavy tracks by big margins.He won by over 4 lengths over 1400m at Randwick on 23 April, then by over 8 lengths over 1600m at Warwick Farm. Trained by Kim Waugh at Wyong who won this race with Our Cantury in 2018. If the track stays heavy he should win.

12. Mirann (10)

Ran 3rd in the Gosford Cup lat outing. Place chance.

The following are the top 4 selections for this years race.

Jo’s Tips
11 Bethencourt
3 Aleas
4 Hopeful
8 Irish Sequel