Australian Guineas – 2021

Track: Good   Weather: Fine

A capacity field of sixteen runners + one emergency have accepted for the $1,000,000 Australian Guineas.  There are no early scratching’s.  Ten of them had their last start in the CS Hayes Stakes which is historically the key lead up for this event.  Five of the last six Australian Guineas winners ran in the CS Hayes Stakes.  Three others come through the Group 2 Autumn Stakes held at Caulfield on February 6.  Trainers Danny O’Brien, Maher/Eustace & Price/Kent Jnr all have multiple runners in this years race.

The early favourite in the betting is last years Blue Diamond winner Tagaloa.  He rode a strong tempo in the CS Hayes Stakes where he fought on strongly to win by a length.  Zou Dancer is the loan filly in this years race – she returned from a break to win the Group 3 Vanity by 4.75 lengths here on February 13.  Aysar has ran second at his last four starts while last years Caulfield Guineas winner Ole Kirk is on the quick back up after tackling the older horses in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes last week.

Dom To Shoot ran third in the Group 1 Kingston Town Classic at the start of December and fifth in the CS Hayes Stakes last start.  Poland traveled strongly and was far too good in the Autumn Stakes first up.  Craig Williams takes the ride on him.  Cherry Tortoni finished fourth behind Tagaloa first up – a nice effort – and Cambourne gets a tounge tie applied after a plain first up run.  The remaining runners are longer than $20-1.

1. Ole Kirk

Last years Caulfield Guineas winner is on the quick back up after finishing 8th in the Futurity Stakes last week.  He was in the wrong section of the track but was still disappointing.  He needs to recapture his form from the spring if he is to feature here.

2. Tagaloa

Fought on well to finish third off a wide run first up at Caulfield.  The winner, Portland Sky, dead heated in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate last week!  Then rode a brutal speed here in the CS Hayes and was too strong for them.  Set to peak third up – the one to beat.

3. Aysar

Got a perfect run last start, camping on the back of the fast speed in the CS Hayes.  His effort was solid to run second but that is 4 seconds in a row now which is a concern.

4. Cherry Tortoni

Second up.  Travelled well in the CS Hayes and quickened nicely when the gap presented itself at the top of the straight.  May have just peaked on his run late so should take plenty improvement from that.  Barrier 17 makes things more difficult but his form is rock solid.

5. Dom To Shoot

WA Galloper.  He ran fifth in the CS Hayes at his first Victorian start.  He draws perfectly in barrier 7 and gets Pike on.

6. Lunar Fox

Started big odds first up and was beaten a long way.  Gets blinkers for the first time but looks unlikely here.

7. Grandslam

John Allan takes over from Ethan Brown on Grandslam.  He was safely held in the CS Hayes and has a wide gate to contend with here.

8. Poland

Took full advantage of a perfect run first up in the Autumn Stakes to win by a length.  This is harder but he is progressive.

9. Beltoro

Won his first two starts and then was no match for the smart Ayrton on Boxing Day.  His 5th placing in the CS Hayes was solid.  Consider for multiples.

10. Embolism

Damian Oliver sticks with Embolism who loomed first up but died on his run.  Barrier 14 is not ideal.

11. It’sourtime

On the quick back up after finishing second to Oxley Road in the Zeditave last week.  He’s deep into his first preparation and loses Jamie Kah.  Doubt he can win.

12. Jet Propulsion

One of three runners to come through the Autumn Stakes.  He finished 4th which was an okay effort.

13. Cambourne

Market wanted to be with him first up in the CS Hayes.  He raced in between horses at the back of the field however once he got clear was only fair to the line.  Was also safely held in the Caulfield Guineas in the spring.  Tom Dabernig and Ben Hayes opt for a tongue tie here so perhaps that can help turn his form around.

14. Ironedge

Ironedge won a Ballarat maiden first up.  He takes a big step up in grade but looks to get the right run and must respect this stable.

15. Here To Shock

Was dominant winning a class 1 at Geelong on January 27.  He then set the strong tempo in the CS Hayes where he weakened out to be beaten 11 lengths. Suspect they ride him more conservatively from barrier 4 here, giving him a chance to finish off.

16. Zou Dancer

Has won 3 of her 4 races this preparation.  We made her a Black Booker after a dominate display in the Group 3 Vanity on February 13.  She won by 4.75 lengths in very strong time there.  She is a very progressive filly and a repeat of that run puts her right in the mix.

17. Lofty Star

Fought back to win a Sandown maiden first up.  Then ran well again in a Class 1.  Would need to improve many many lengths to be a chance here.

The following are the top 4 selections for this years race.

Jo’s Tips	Lewis’ Tips
16. Zou Dancer	2. Tagaloa
2. Tagaloa	16. Zou Dancer
3. Aysar	4. Cherry Tortoni
4. Cherry Tortoni	3. Aysar

Group 2 Blamey Stakes 2021 (Flemington 1600m)