Best Bets | Happy Valley, 23 March 2022

Best Bets

Our Happy Valley Horse Racing Tips for Wednesday’s meeting.

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Excellent Peers | (Happy Valley Race 6 No.9)

This is a nice little race and I think both of these horses can run big races. Excellent Peers ran second to the speedy Scotch Tycoon three back before a nice third behind Lightning Storm two back. He stepped up to 1200m last start and had to go back due to the poor draw, but flew home for a nice fifth placing, 2.1 lengths off the winner. He ran the fourth quickest final 400m and third quickest 200m of the entire meeting and quickest of both in the race. Zac Purton is on, and they have drawn barrier 5 in a race with little pace, so I am expecting them to settle much closer in the run. Providing they do, they will be hard to beat.

Suggested bet:  1.5 units @ $2.80

Next Best

Viva Hunter | (Happy Valley Race 9 No.11) & Packing Award | (Happy Valley Race 9 No.9)

Duel bet to finish the night. Viva Hunter went around as the only logical danger to rival Zone D last start and he ended up giving him a shock, as he took him right to the line in his 0.06 of a length loss. The leaders made the race easier for Zone D, running at almost 7.5 lengths above average! He meets Zone D 1kg better off for that run, in a race that won’t have a lot of pace at all. He should be able to sit just off the leaders from the ideal draw and be hard to catch. Packing Award is another who I didn’t mind in this race rated really well in his last start victory over this track and distance. Despite drawing similarly, this will be a harder test for him up in grade, but if he can run as he has over his past three or four races, he can run a big race.

Suggested bet:  0.8 unit @ $5.50 / 0.8 unit @ $5.00

Other Bets

Grand Power | (Happy Valley Race 1 No.9)

We have a staying race to start the day, and I am not a fan of them, especially in Class 5. Landed with the Chang trained Grand Power who ran an okay race when running first-up over 2200m. Despite being drawn wide, he is a big chance to be ridden positively and has the magic man aboard which is going to help. Just thought he might run a cheeky race but it’s a no-bet race for me.

Suggested bet:  No Bet @ $7.50

Red Impact | (Happy Valley Race 2 No.9)

This is another race that I am not a fan of. I have landed with Red Impact despite his wide draw as I am expecting a forward run. He did a lot wrong last start over the 1800m and has since gone to the trials, where he was asked to do little and travel under his own steam. The drop back to 1650m is an odd one, but it is the only distance he has won in his career. Zac Purton rides again, and I am expecting a good run. Not a bet for me though.

Suggested bet:  No Bet @ $7.50

Oversubscribed | (Happy Valley Race 3 No.6)

Blink and you will miss them here over the 1000m and I reckon if this guy can hold a more forward position, he is going to be hard to stop. Last start he finally drew a gate and settled in eighth on an average pace. He came home okay and ran the quickest split from the 400m to the 200m of the race in a 1.12 length defeat in fourth behind rival Circuit Seven, who he meets 2.5kg better off at the weights. Blake Shinn sticks with him and they again have drawn well in a fast race. If he does hold a more forward position, he could run a big race.

Suggested bet:  0.4 unit @ $10.00

Colonel | (Happy Valley Race 4 No.1)

I have gone with the top weight in a wide-open affair. Colonel is coming back from Class 3 grade where he had been racing okay without winning. Last start over the 1400m, he ran a bold race whilst sitting on the pace, which was going around 4.9 lengths above average. He ran the fastest figure of any on pace horse to the 200m mark of the entire meeting, which shows just how fast they were going, yet he still managed to hold on to a 2.2 length fourth behind the promising Galaxy Witness. He gets Purton aboard, draws ideally to do little work on the pace, and back to 1200m looks ideal.

Suggested bet:  1.5 units @ $2.80

Lucky Missile | (Happy Valley Race 5 No.12)

This is a tough little Class 4 that he is stepping up to, but his recent figures suggest he can run a big race. Lucky Missile was very good a fortnight ago, coming from the rear of the field to dead heat with Telecom Cheetah. He comes back in distance to the 1650m and drops down to a mere 52kg with the step up in grade. Although he has drawn to give them a start, there is a lot of pace in this race and with an even amount of luck, he can go close.

Suggested bet:  0.6 unit @ $7.00

Seizing The Moment | (Happy Valley Race 7 No.6) & Magic Phoenix | (Happy Valley Race 7 No.3)

The blinkers really switched on Seizing The Moment last start, as he went from a horse who just couldn’t win to a winner straight away. Despite having a couple of tense moments, he was able to salute in the end by just over a length. It will be interesting to see what Moreira does from a middle barrier, but providing he gets adequate cover no worse than midfield, he is a chance to go back-to-back. Magic Phoenix was brilliant first-up and has the chance to lead with no issues and put very little pace into the race. He was a solid third chasing home Lucky Sweynesse and Toronado Phantom, who would both win this race comfortably. If he can pinch some cheap sectionals, he could be hard to run down.

Suggested bet:  1.8 units @ $2.30 / 0.8 unit @ $5.50

Lucky Sweynesse | (Happy Valley Race 8 No.5)

This bloke has been nothing but impressive in his two race starts, and I expect that to continue here. He won with ease last start against similar opposition, and despite giving them weight, it probably could have been more had he not been given an easy time over the final 150m. This is the worst draw he has faced but there is not a lot of pace in the race, so I expect him to stride to the front with ease. Purton goes on for Moreira so there is no loss with the change, and I expect him to be hard to catch. No Bet due to price.

Suggested bet: No Bet @ $1.45

Total : 8.2 Units

Race 1

9 Grand Power

Race 2

9 Red Impact

Race 3

6 Oversubscribed

Race 4

1 Colonel

Race 5

12 Lucky Missile

Race 6

9 Excellent Peers

Race 7

6 Seizing The Moment

Race 8

8 Lucky Sweynesse

Race 9

11 Viva Hunter

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