Best Bets | Happy Valley, 16 March 2022

Viva Mama | (Happy Valley Race 1 No.7)

Tremendous way to start the night with some Purton magic. He is taking the ride on Viva Mama after his narrow loss last start, where he had to do a bit of work early to not only get into position but sit outside the lead. He found a second wind late to make it tight on the line but without that extra work, he wins the race. Purton has noticed and got the ride here, and the better draw has now fallen in his lap. He does have Shanghai Power to his inside who will likely kick up and try to lead, but he won’t have to do as much work as last start. It’s his chance to get win number two.

Suggested bet:  1.6 units @ $2.60

Diamond Star | (Happy Valley Race 2 No.10) / Manna From Heaven | (Happy Valley Race 2 No.1)

I was with Diamond Star last start behind Dragon Pride, and unfortunately, the draw/map did the damage in the end, as he went down by 1.8 lengths in third. He still managed to run the quickest final sectionals from the 800m to the finish of the race, much like he did the start prior against the same opposition. Moreira retains the ride, and he gets a lovely draw out of barrier 5, so I am expecting a slightly closer run in transit. This isn’t a deep Class 5, so with the right run, he goes close again. Manna From Heaven goes into the mix with Purton aboard with the back in class move as well as moving back to his preferred distance. Draw is a bit sticky, but you cannot leave him out.

Suggested bet:  0.9 unit @ $4.60 / 1.2 units @ $3.60

Perfect Maryknoll | (Happy Valley Race 3 No.1)

This is a nice setup for the son of Stratum. I thought his run last start had plenty of merit behind some talented horses and not only does he step up in distance, which is ideal, but he drops back in class while he is at it. He gets Zac Purton aboard which is a clear sign of intent and there is very little pace in this race so Purton could make use of the lack of speed or if he settles back, he can use one of his mid-race moves. This bloke won’t have any issues over 1800m as before he come to Hong Kong, he won the Tasmanian Derby over 2200m. I am expecting a pretty big run here.

Suggested bet:  0.8 unit @ $5.00

Sure Joyful | (Happy Valley Race 4 No.6)

This is such a gross race, not sure which way to look initially. I loved the debut of Sure Joyful last month where he had to go back due to his draw, but he hit the line well in for third. He got a bit close for heels in the finish, but not sure it would have changed the outcome. Unfortunately, he has drawn wide again here but since that last run, he has had one trial where he was ridden a bit more positively against some much better horses and trialled well at that. If they decided to head to a better position, likely favourite Sight Hero will go forward so maybe Ruan Maia can trail behind him. I won’t be betting here, but hopefully, he gets a nice run and finishes off nicely.

Suggested bet:  No Bet @ $6.50

Big Two | (Happy Valley Race 5 No.8) & Bulletproof | (Happy Valley Race 5 No.4)

Happy to play both of these guys, as I think their race has the superior form line. Big Two is only having his fourth run this preparation and is open to plenty of improvement. I thought his run behind his rival Bulletproof was actually better than his, after copping multiple interferences throughout the race. He also finished off the race quicker, running the quickest final 800m, 600m and 400m of the race. Despite not drawing well, I expect a similar run-in transit, and with his 1.5kg swing on Bulletproof, it could well be the difference. Bulletproof is in tremendous form and with Purton sticking, how could you not have something on him again, despite the weight rise. He did have one slight excuse to not winning more comprehensively last start, as he lost a plate in the middle stages of the race. Regardless, he managed to salute nicely and with a better draw here, he is going to be a player again.

Suggested bet:  0.8 unit @ $5.50 / 1.6 units @ $2.60

Like That | (Happy Valley Race 6 No.1)

I love the form around this bloke, and I think the step back in class is going to do him wonders. Last start, his run was a bit average, but he was taking on some speedy customers in Whizz Kid and Lightning Storm, who are 1000m specialists and this bloke has been screaming for 1200m for some time. His two starts prior he ran consecutive third placings to Stoltz and Special M over the 1000m, with his second go, running the quickest last 200m of the race and meeting. I expect Moreira to get him into a nice spot and for him to really be hitting the line hard.

Suggested bet:  No Bet @ $4.80

Armour Eagle | (Happy Valley Race 8 No.2) / Sky Forever | (Happy Valley Race 8 No.7)

Armour Eagle has had all the talent in the world yet has had his struggles to nail down that maiden Hong Kong victory until last start. Purton rated him brilliantly just off the leaders last start before storming to the lead and winning by 1.25 lengths, against some strong opposition. Seizing the Moment who ran third in that race has since come out and won nicely. He has a slightly more awkward draw and goes up a massive 6.4kg from that win, but Zac Purton sticking is positive. Sky Forever has drawn horribly and will be giving his opposition a start, but the way he savaged the line last start, cannot be ignored. This looks a tough race and providing the odds are right, it will be a betting race.

Suggested bet:  1.9 units @ $2.20 / 0.4 unit @ $10.00

Jumbo Fortune | (Happy Valley Race 9 No.2)

Jumbo Fortune is one who is going to love the set-up to the 1650m from 1200m after hitting the line with gusto last start. Since that narrow fourth placing, he has had a nice tick over trial in preparation for this in which Moreira was in the saddle for, and he also gets to ride him on race day. Formerly called Saif when he raced in Australia, he beat home a horse called Converge over 1400m before being sold to Hong Kong, and we all know what that horse has since achieved. I am confident we will go close to ending the night with a winner.

Suggested bet:  1 unit @ $4.40

Total : 12.1 units