Last Week (Profit/Loss): -1.85 units  l  Overall Season (Profit/Loss): +5.30 units

I’m keen to bet into five of the nine games this week.  Please see my preview and staking plan for these games.

Port Adelaide v Melbourne Demons

Thursday 7/4/22 @ Adelaide Oval

Last 5 Encounters |  Port Adelaide 3  |  Melbourne 2

Verdict

The Power host the reigning premiers on Thursday night footy and they will be desperate to avoid going 0-4 following a heart breaking after the siren loss to the Crows in last weeks Showdown.  The Demons on the other hand just managed to cover the line (27.5) for us against Essendon on Friday night.  The young Dons came at them hard in the third quarter but they responded like the quality side they are and quickly put the game to bed.  Expect Port to show some resistance here (they simply have too) but Melbourne get star defender Jake Lever back for this and its very hard to see Port kicking a big enough score to win with Grey and Dixon still absent from their forward line.

Suggested bet – Melbourne H2H (Multi)

Geelong Cats v Brisbane Lions

Friday 8/4/22 @ Geelong

Last 5 Encounters |  Geelong 3  |  Brisbane 2

Verdict

Another Friday night block buster is ahead of us as the undefeated Lions travel down to the fortress that is GMHBA Stadium to take on the Cats.  The Cats looked dead and buried with a quarter to go last week but dug deep to pile on seven last quarter goals to run over the top of Collingwood.  Brisbane were far too good for an underwhelming North Melbourne at home and moved themselves to the top of the AFL ladder.  A key change for each side with the big O – Oscar McInerny – to miss for the Lions due to suspension and Geelong interestingly opt to rest skipper Joel Selwood.

If this game was in Brisbane the Lions would be at least a two goal favourite.  With the Cats at home I make this an even money game, so happy to have something on the Lions here at the head to head given they are a slight under dog.

Suggested bet – 1 Unit Brisbane H2H @ $2.03 (Sportsbet)

Sydney Swans v North Melbourne Kangaroos

Saturday 10/4/22 @ SCG

Last 5 Encounters |  Sydney 4  |  North Melbourne 1

Verdict

Sydney come up a very short favourite in this and rightly so.  They have made a strong start to season 2022 winning their first two and were only narrowly defeated by the Bulldogs last week.  The same can not be said for North Melbourne who were far from convincing in their win over a depleted West Coast two weeks ago, then lost to Brisbane by 108 points last week.  Their coach David Nobel didn’t hold back in his press conference after the game and I am expecting some form of response from North although it’s impossible to see them winning.  With plenty of rain forecast in Sydney this shapes as a scrappy affair and a low scoring game.

Suggested bet – 1 Unit Total Match Points Under (153.5) @ $1.90 (TAB)

Western Bulldogs v Richmond Tigers

Saturday 9/4/22 @ MCG

Last 5 Encounters |  Western Bulldogs 2  |  Richmond 3

Verdict

We spoke about the Dogs needing to respond after a 0-2 start and respond they did by taking down the Sydney Swans last Thursday night.  Despite being wasteful in front of goal they absolutely dominated the first half against a good Sydney side.  To the Swans credit they made a big run at them in the second half but a late goal from the skipper Marcus Bontempelli would ensure a much needed victory for the Bulldogs.  Richmond had an extraordinary run of 10 goals to none put on them by St Kilda in the second half of their game last week.  They slump to 1-2 and whilst they may end up getting Jack Riewoldt back they will be with out co captain Dylan Grimes who joins Dustin Martin on the side lines – they are arguably Richmond’s two most important players.  Thought the Dogs would have come up shorter here.  Keen to back them.

Western Bulldogs to cover the line.

Suggested bet –  2 Units Western Bulldogs Line (-10.5) @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)

Essendon Bombers v Adelaide Crows

Sunday 10/4/22 @ Docklands

Last 5 Encounters |  Essendon 4  |  Adelaide 1

Verdict

It’s not the start Essendon or their fans were after losing all three matches to open the season but when we drill down they have played three of the premiership fancies and have been very competitive against two of them.  Adelaide come to Melbourne off the back of an outstanding show down win over Port Adelaide.  The younger Crows side refused to surrender to their more experienced rival and were able to secure the result after the siren thanks to some Jordan Dawson heroics.  However they were soundly beaten against Collingwood in Melbourne two weeks ago and I think they are going to find it hard to back up last weeks performance on the road against a Dons side who will be desperate to put a win on the board.  Furthermore the Bombers have won their last four games against the Crows and destroyed them at this venue last year.

Suggested bet – Essendon H2H (Multi)

Multi – 1.5 Units @ $1.97 (Sportsbet)

  • Melbourne (Win)
  • Essendon (Win)