AFL Round 1
Carlton Blues v Richmond Tigers (Thursday Night)
Nathan Buckley said on Monday night that there could be over 200 points scored in this game and I tend to agree with him. A perfect Melbourne Night with both sides looking to move the ball into their gun key forwards fast. The current total of 173.5 looks short of where it needs to be.
Suggested Bet – Total 1.5 Units Match Points OVER 173.5 @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)
Greater Western Sydney v Adelaide (Sunday)
Another game where the overs seem a solid play. Not only has new Giants coach Adam Kingsley talked about moving the footy quick this year but a warm day in Sydney should mean players get tired earlier and the game opens up.
Suggested Bet – Total 1.5 Units Match Points OVER 171.5 @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)
St Kilda v Fremantle (Sunday)
The Dockers took a big leap forward last year not only making finals but winning a final. I really like their coach Justin Longmuir plus they have added a few good additions to a list which is young talented and most importantly healthy. In contrast, the St Kilda team has suffered numerous injuries to key personnel, including their two key forwards, Max King and Tim Membrey. Coach Ross Lyon has described this season as one of “exploration,” while Fremantle would have high expectations to play finals footy and push for top 4 spot. It’s worth noting that in their last meeting at this venue, Fremantle convincingly defeated St Kilda by 41 points. With all of this in mind, I believe that Fremantle can and should cover this line.
Suggested Bet – Total 1.5 Units Fremantle Line (-12.5) @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)
Weekly Multi – 1 Unit @ $2.70 (Sportsbet)
- Brisbane (Win)
- Fremantle (Win)
AFL Premiership Market (Futures Bets)
Suggested Bet – 1.5 Units Brisbane Lions Premiership Winner @ $7.5 (Tab)
The Lions have had an unbelievable off season with the amount of talent they have been able to bring through the door. Josh Dunkley from the Bulldogs is a terrific get as are Hawthorn champion Jack Gunston and Connor McKenna (the talented Irishman who I think may have flown under the radar of many). They have also picked up the most talented 18-year-old in the country Will Ashcroft who looks ready made for AFL footy – much like Nick Daicos was for Collingwood last year.
With a strong list and significant home ground advantage I give them a huge chance of finishing in the top 2 which provides an opportunity to progress to a grand final without having to leave Brisbane. My only slight concern are their tall defenders or lack there of – if something was to happen to Harris Andrews then that would be a significant cause for concern. Even so I think the current price is still value and if they can take care of the Power at home on Saturday it might be the best price we see about the Lions for some time.
Suggested Bet – .5 Unit Western Bulldogs Premiership Winner @ $15 (TAB)
I am a little bit surprised that there is still $15 available for the Bulldogs to win it. Liam Jones is a significant recruit for them in deference as is Rory Lobb in attack and gun youngsters Ugle-Hagan and Darcy are only going to be better with another preseason under their belts. Yes they lose Dunkley and Hunter but their midfield stocks are stacked and barring a bad run with injury I think they have the depth to be covering these players. It’s easy to forget they were in front at half time in the 2021 Grand Final just 18 months ago and in my opinion have a much better list now.
Please note I was also going to recommend backing Melbourne prior to the news they would be with out four key troops for round 1. Just holding off on them for the time being with the view to backing them in the coming weeks.
AFL Brownlow Medal (Futures Bets)
Suggested Bet – 1 Unit Lachie Neale @ $11 (Sportsbet)
Was runner up in the medal last year and won it back in 2020. He is proven poller in a side which is almost certain to win 15 + games. He should be clear favourite in my opinion and is value at $11.
Suggested Bet – 1 Unit Andrew Brayshaw @ $15 (Sportsbet)
He profiles very well for this award. Won the AFL Players Association MVP last year and polled extremely well in the Brownlow. At just 23 years of age you’d expect him to step again on what he did last year which can see him right there again at the top of the leaderboard come Brownlow night.
Suggested Bet – 1 Unit Christian Petracca @ $17 (TAB)
He jumped a red hot single figure favourite for this award going into last season and started with a bang polling back to back best on’s. Looked to be playing sore through the middle of the season where he had a run of 5 games without a single vote but still managed to secure a top 5 finish. He looks fitter than ever this year and the Demons will win more games. $17 is good shopping.
Suggested Bet – .5 Unit Jordan De Goey @ $41 (Sportsbet)
He’s my smokey. Concede that consistency hasn’t been his strong suit, but he is a genuine gun of the competition when on and has all the attributes to win a Brownlow. He still managed to play some elite footy last year despite all the off field distractions. He has had a more seamless preseason this year and is in great shape physically. If he is ever going to do it this year could be the year.