2011 TJ Smith Stakes Preview & Tips

2011 TJ Smith Stakes Preview & Tips

Randwick – Sat 9 April 2011

The $1,000,000 Group 1Darley TJ Smith Stakes over 1200 metres is the main supporting race to the AJC Australian Derby on a program of 9 Group races at Randwick. The early betting market is dominated by short odds-on favourite Black Caviar who has raced 11 times for 11 wins – the last four were all Group 1 races including the Lightning, the Newmarket and the William Reid. This will be her debut run in Sydney and it is not known yet how she will handle running in the opposite direction. There is a field of 11 runners and her opposition includes some quality sprinters.

Runners in the 2011 TJ Smith at Randwick

Black Caviar ($1.20) is the pin-up girl of Australian racing and has shown us time and time again (11 times in fact) what a classy animal she is. This may be her toughest test so far as the track is expected to be dead at best, and she will be running the Sydney way for the first time. Despite the “ifs” I think she’ll win again, maintaining her perfect record.

Hay List ($13) has raced 17 times for 13 wins and 2 seconds. He is a great sprinter who is a Group 1 winner and a joy to watch, but I do not expect he will Black Caviar here at weight-for-age.

Crystal Lily ($13) is the 2010 Golden Slipper winner and at her last 2 starts has chased home Black Caviar for two second placings. She has plenty of fight in her and will run well here, but it is hard to see her turning the tables.

Shoot Out ($17) is having his first start since running 13^th in the 2010 Melbourne Cup. He has a good first-up record and has won all 3 of his starts at this track. Can sprint fresh but I think these will be too quick for him.

Response ($21) was a surprise Group 1 winner last start when she beat Beaded in the 1200m Sportingbet in Adelaide. Expected to run well again.

Jo’s Tips – TJ Smith Stakes

1. Black Caviar,  2. Crystal Lily,  3. Hay List

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